Trading the oil spread
On the 24th August, Vortexa’s US Team discussed Vortexa’s proprietary data and utilising it to anticipate what’s next for time spreads, locational arbs and product differentials.
Vortexa Lead Analyst, Will Holeman, and Product Specialist, Conor Stone, identified that oil market dynamics are again in flux. Changing OPEC supply volumes, recovering refinery runs and steady US crude exports are among the factors influencing key spreads.
- Crude market structure to weaken on rising Middle East supplies and slack Chinese demand while North American import demands should rise.
- Shifts in the forward curve could lead to increased crude stock builds in the US
- The WTI-Brent differential should struggle to keep US crude competitive in international markets and lead to more Atlantic Basin crude staying in-region
- Product cracks, specifically for gasoline, have driven refining runs up and led to greater products export volumes