Event News
Added Dec 15, 2021

Event highlights: Seaborne energy flows - Review 2021 & outlook 2022

Share this article
Vortexa Newsletter Subscribe and get Vortexa news straight to your inbox

As 2021 draws to a close, global seaborne energy markets are still reeling from the turbulent and unpredictable events triggered by COVID-19 that significantly disrupted oil and gas flows.

In this special webinar, Vortexa’s Chief Economist David Wech, Lead Crude Analyst Jay Maroo, APAC Head of Analysis Serena Huang, and Lead Freight Analyst Arthur Richier, came together to analyse where the global markets stand in the road to recovery and what challenges, opportunities and risks are waiting around the corner in 2022.

Key discussion points included:

  • Crucial 2021 trends and takeaways
  • Base-case indications for next year – growth, stagnation or decline?
  • Top risks and opportunities

Watch now

 

Core takeaways from the session:

2022 will have a tough start and a bright ending, with plenty of volatility in between!

Crude markets:

  • The impact of Omicron in Q1 is set to be much larger than originally forecast by the IEA or OPEC
  • Refiners and OPEC+ are likely to adjust crude flows as needed, limiting stock builds, and China is unlikely to stage a big comeback.
  • IEA supply growth expectations are too optimistic, but OPEC+ and North America will add barrels.
    Fresh supply needs will be much higher as 2021 stock draws cannot be repeated.
  • OPEC+ spare capacity may well become a hot issue when demand picks up to pre-pandemic levels in H2 2022.
  • Atlantic to Pacific flows may be rangebound in H1, but rise markedly in H2 2022, with quality considerations potentially playing a role.

Product markets & refining:

  • Demand came close to pre-pandemic levels in Oct/Nov but is now falling short again on high prices and Covid.
  • Refiners in oil and gas producing countries do now enjoy big competitive advantages (feeds & energy), which are set to continue into 2022.
  • This underpins US economics, with product exports being a key factor for global oil flows.
    The US is set to regain its grip on LatAm product markets.
  • Asia is likely to struggle to maintain product exports out of the region amidst strong inflows from the Middle East.
  • Refinery consolidation is set to continue.

Freight markets:

  • ​​Dirty freight is suffering from short trips (MEG to Asia, less WAf and Caspian crude) and overcapacity.
  • Only H2 is likely to bring a more noticeable recovery with US-to-Asia flows as big hope.
  • More refining at the margin in producer countries is a concern for the dirty segment.
  • Clean tankers enjoyed a strong recovery in 2021, but also here the fleet appears too big.
  • Some upside from more exports out of the US, Russia and the Middle East, but these barrels travel relatively short distances.
  • EoS to Atlantic Basin clean flows may face resistance, especially in H1 2022.




The latest news

Jan 21, 2022
People & Culture
blog-events
name
Listing_Summary-Vortexa_July2019

We sat down with Sabrina Gross, Head of Customer Success, to find out what day-to-day life looks like, what significant milestones she has had at Vortexa, and what she really thinks of our company culture...

subscribe_insight-form
blog-tag
location
banner_bg
getintouch-section
post_body
Jan 13, 2022
Company News
blog-events
name
Listing_Summary-Vortexa_July2019

Today, Vortexa is proud to launch the world’s most complete data and analytics for global onshore crude inventories, enabling commodities traders and analysts to gain the fastest and most accurate view of global supply and demand balances.

subscribe_insight-form
blog-tag
location
banner_bg
getintouch-section
post_body
Dec 10, 2021
People & Culture
blog-events
name
Listing_Summary-Vortexa_July2019

Ever wondered what a day in the life looks like at Vortexa for a Data Engineer? We sat down with Arthur Degonde to dig deeper into what energises him most about working at Vortexa, what he really thinks of the company culture and what qualities are needed to succeed...

subscribe_insight-form
blog-tag
location
banner_bg
getintouch-section
post_body

Get in touch today for a free trial

Request a demo