Event News
Added Nov 16, 2020

Event highlights: The Post-Election Oil Market webinar

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On 16th November, our Americas team reviewed what the potential impact of the incoming Biden administration and 117th Congress will have on the global oil markets. 

Our presenters Managing Director Clay Seigle, Lead Market Analyst Will Holeman and Product Specialist Conor Stone addressed the most pressing questions oil traders, producers and policymakers have about Washington’s oil-related agenda, through the lens of our market intelligence and insights.

The webinar explored major oil drivers and trading opportunities, including:

  • The effects of COVID-19 pandemic response on oil demand
  • Prospects for growing the US-China crude oil trade
  • Market ramifications of sanctions policy on Iran 

Click below to watch the full webinar to glean critical insight into the fluctuating oil landscape in light of the transformative election results. 

Watch on demand

Core takeaways from the session: 

Key messages 

  • Changes to national pandemic response were initially bearish, before oscillating to a more supportive dynamic. 
  • US crude oil exports to China are likely to increase under the new Biden administration. Vortexa anticipates that the trade war between these two countries will begin to ease as Biden pushes for a more balanced relationship. 
  • Sanctions policy changes are bearish at face value, but timing and offsets are important. 

Pandemic response & oil demand 

  • Nationwide lockdowns destroyed national demand levels, but there has since been a substantial recovery in US gasoline demand. 
  • PADD 1 imports of gasoline & PADD 3 exports of gasoline dropped significantly between March - April 2020, but are now starting to rebalance in light of the election results. 
  • The downstream supply response saw US refineries cut runs dramatically, whereas the upstream supply response saw US crude outputs slump. 

Growth potential for US-China oil trade

  • The US toehold in the Chinese crude market is poised to expand, as Chinese refiners steadily demonstrate a growing appetite for US crudes. US midstreams continue to be supported by Chinese trades.

Lifting sanctions: How bearish?

  • Iranian crude & condensate exports are currently still under pressure, however the Biden administration will likely lead to an easing of sanctions on exports by 2022. 
  • Iran will face stiff competition to break back into this market. European buyers need to feel confident there will be no backlash from US sanctions if they move forward with Iranian products. 
  • Although overall there will be far fewer buyers of Iranian crude, the main buyer is projected to be China. 

To see how we use our data to make predictions and gather insights, click below to get in touch with the team for a platform demo.

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