After dramatic start to 2021, one might have expected a more settled summer LNG market. However, several key factors have generated some of the most interesting few months in the market. Vortexa reviews these developments to distil key drivers and emerging trends across the global LNG markets.
Vortexa evaluates if the current large volumes of seaborne diesel on the water are a demand pull or a supply push from refineries as they max out gasoline production.
Vortexa data shows global jet fuel flows still remain well below pre-Covid norms, with little sign of a meaningful demand recovery so far this summer. Flows heading to key demand centres in Europe and Asia remain flat, but the US is proving to be a rare bright spot for import activity.
A flood of diluted bitumen cargoes has rapidly filled up storage tanks in Shandong, as traders and refiners scrambled to offload the cargoes before the consumption tax on diluted bitumen imports kicked in on 12 June. With this new tax in place, independent refiners are expected to cut back on diluted bitumen and raise Malaysian crude blends and fuel oil imports to meet their feedstocks requirements.
China’s new consumption tax on imports of mixed aromatics and light cycle oil (LCO) is about to turn the tides of its domestic supply and exports of gasoline and diesel/gasoil. Downside risks on MR tanker demand looms ahead.
Which regions will see the largest growth in new renewable diesel capacity additions in 2021? Our infographic details the top importing and exporting regions for biodiesel and feedstocks.
Singapore’s fuel oil market has reached one of its tightest periods so far this year amid on and offshore inventory draws.
Australia’s refining sector has been dealt another blow by BP’s recent announcement to shut its Kwinana refinery in Western Australia, and convert it into an import terminal by early next year.
Australia’s Lytton and Geelong refineries are being threatened with permanent shutdown as the compounding impact of the pandemic on oil demand drags on. We postulate the changes on crude and refined products flows if the refineries shut.
Stay up to date on the ramifications of China’s long-standing port congestion, discover why Singapore’s fuel oil arbitrage flows from Europe and South Americas are in decline and get to grips with why Asia’s crude floating storage levels could be primed for resurgence.
Crude volumes heading to China in week 6 (w/e 9 February) held relatively steady amid limited on-the-water diversions. Vortexa also observed higher middle distillate and gasoline exports, as well as LPG diversions.
China’s seasonally high refinery runs and the recent start-up of its two new mega-refineries is reflected in its strong November clean refined products exports.
China’s seaborne crude imports are poised to maintain their momentum in November, Vortexa data show, after touching a multi-year high of over 10mn b/d in October.
Diesel exports from Indian public sector undertaking (PSU) refiners were observed at multi-year highs in October, Vortexa data show.
Fuel oil and crude inventory held in floating storage in the wider Port Dickson area off Malaysia has grown sharply, contributing to the regional offshore build up of IMO 2020 compliant fuels.
China’s growing refined product exports—mainly gasoline, jet/kero and diesel types—have kept the regional market across Asia well-supplied this year.
Taiwan’s imports of low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO), used in power generation, and imports of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), have steadily been declining over the last 12 months.
Australian heavy sweet crude grades, such as Pyrenees, Van Gigh and Wandoo, have been swooped up by the market ahead of IMO 2020.