Although global middle distillates have led refined product cracks for the last 2.5 months, increased supplies have prompted a downturn in diesel and jet cracks while gasoline cracks take the lead in the refinery margin complex on a global level. Refineries appear now to be shifting towards gasoline production and away from middle distillates. Given the healthy economics, global gasoline supplies are on the rise as seen in the Vortexa export data.
In this insight, Vortexa examines the current status-quo for VLCC rates, and provides an outlook of whether the repositioning to the Western hemisphere can prove to be supportive in the months to come.
West African crude exports to China continue to decline in May, following multi-year lows in April.
Record diesel cracks have fostered supplies, visible in strong exports from Asia, the Middle East and the US. Also Russian diesel exports to Europe are stable at a high level. Accordingly markets are cooling and the focus shifts to gasoline and crude.
As the global diesel shortage rises, the world looks to Asia's spare refining capacity for additional supplies. In this insight, we assess how much relief Asia can realistically offer in the near-term.
In this insight we shed light on the diverging trends emerging for crude and refined products loadings from OPEC+.
As China's crude import appetite slows, crude producers are now competing for a smaller pie. Who will be the winners and losers in this race?
US crude/condensates exports to Europe are rising in April as the continent pivots further away from Russian supplies. As exports to Europe rise, so too are volumes loaded onto larger tankers, possibly indicating the start of a longer term trend.
Russian crude oil exports are rising strongly in April, adding pressure on oil prices on top of China's Covid nightmare and SPR release. But a number of factors speak for a renewed tightening of markets.
India's diesel exports set a record-high in March, as traders in the west snapped up every available barrel offered in the market. We weigh in on whether this export level is sustainable going forward.
On the 19th April, Vortexa's Market Analysis team came together to discuss oil & gas market dynamics in an environment of unseen uncertainty.
As we move into the second quarter of this year, we analyse the effects of recent developments on the tonne-mile demand of crude and clean tanker fleets.
In this insight we examine the diverging trends in the flows of Russia's flagship crude grade Urals, when loaded in the Baltics versus Black Sea.
Russian overall oil exports are on a declined path, while crude exports are stable. European resupply needs and volatility/risk are supporting freight rates, while so far we do not see unusual dark shipping activity.
Growing sanctions on Russia raise the question of re-supply to Europe. We take a look at the Middle East, which based on its size would be promissing, but flow trends suggest otherwise.
Russian oil exports are increasingly struggling, given the strong dependence on "unfriendly countries". IEA's call of 2.5-3mbd crude supply losses looks plausible but is at loggerheads with range-bound oil prices.
Russian crude exports from the Baltic and Black Sea are now showing a clear redirection away from Europe. In this insight we explore the magnitude of this shift and where these crude cargoes are heading to instead.
In this webinar, Vortexa’s Lead Analyst, Serena Huang, China Market Analyst, Emma Li, and Lead Freight Analyst, Arthur Richier, discussed some new opportunities and trading strategies that have evolved as a result of this new oil regime.
As the US and UK join a growing list of trading and refining companies in abandoning Russian oil barrels this week, the repercussions of an increasingly starved global oil market will deal a hard blow on Asia's economy.
Following the recent news of sanction placements as well as the oil and freight price behaviour over the past few days, we give a brief update on the fate of crude tanker markets, which looks ominous for shipowners.
Oil prices are set to rise strongly, as Russian supplies to the market are getting delayed or cancelled down the line. We try to give an overview on crucial factors for rebalanced the market in unchartered territory.
In the face of mounting challenges to trade oil from Russia, Vortexa conducts a scenario analysis to evaluate how a change in the flow landscape could impact Crude & CPP tanker demand.
In this insight we examine the pros and cons of some key grades that could see/are seeing a boost in demand as European buyers shy away from Russian crude.
From an oil and shipping point of view, the Russia/Ukraine war may curtail or merely rerout the flows of Russian oil barrels, or even keep them largely unchanged. The importance of diesel may even top crude, with limited alternatives speaking for continued Russian-European trade.
Vortexa were proud to host the Energy Market Update 2022 this week, as a pre-IE Week celebration event to bring together industry leaders, held in a hidden venue in Mayfair, London.
European refiners' thirst for light-sweet crudes has propelled sweet crude premiums in recent weeks. As these premiums continue to test historical highs, it raises questions as to whether product prices are catching up fast enough to support this price momentum.
From the 26-28 January, Vortexa partnered with Argus to present at the Argus Crude Live online conference, alongside industry leaders.
The global refining industry is facing immense challenges in ramping up runs. With Asia and Europe's refiners entering maintenance season, and current product inventories near historical lows, the market could see more tightness looming ahead.
In this insight, we will drill into the details of export trends among the most important sweet crude producers for the global market.
Global crude inventories are at one of the lowest levels historically after a significant draw last year. Will this trend continue or is an inflection coming?
In this insight we examine the reprcussions and motivations behind Europe and/or the US applying sanctions to Russian energy
Global crude liftings are falling short of meeting demand in spite of OPEC+ efforts, and the latest trend is furthermore going in the wrong direction.
Vortexa will make a recap of the key takeaways of crude tanker CPP voyages, while giving a view of whether this trend is sustainable in 2022.
Global crude liftings are falling short of meeting demand in spite of OPEC+ efforts, and the latest trend is furthermore going in the wrong direction.
Growing diesel tightness globally is fueling a rise in diesel cracks and a widening of the market backwardation. With refinery runs capped by high operational costs and upcoming maintenance activities, the diesel market could tighten further in the weeks ahead.
Omicron: pre-emptive supply cuts & resilient demand draw stocks and lift prices
Vortexa analyses flow developments in the Mediterranean, assessing the impact on freight rates and inferring on what lies ahead.
China issued the first batch of crude import and product export quotas to refiners this year at around 10% and 55% lower than last year’s respectively, signaling its commitment towards further consolidating the refining sector.
Global crude exports ended 2021 on a high, driven by higher volumes from key OPEC Middle East producers, the US and Russia.
Transatlantic rates reached an annual high recently, however are now easing. Vortexa is attempting to analyse the reasons behind this decline and whether this trend will resume.
In this special webinar, Vortexa’s Market Analysis team came together to analyse where the global markets stand in the road to recovery and what challenges, opportunities and risks are waiting around the corner in 2022.
In last year’s freight forecast Vortexa described 2020 as one of the most volatile years on record. 2021 saw a more tepid year, with freight rates overall languishing at their lowest levels in years. Vortexa forecasts what 2022 has in store for freight markets.
Vortexa analyses competitive advantages of different refining setups and concludes from product export data that refiners in oil producing countries are currently outperforming plants in consuming nations thanks to feedstock costs.
As geopolitical tensions mount around Russia-US relations, we take stock of the former nation's role in supplying oil and gas.
In this blog, Vortexa attempts to assess Omicron’s impact on crude and product tanker markets.
Total oil and gas seaborne departures rose to record highs in November. We investigate the main contributors and drivers behind the rise.
As global market volatility continues to rock America and beyond, Vortexa’s Chief Economist David Wech and Senior Market Analyst Pamela Munger shared their expert insights on Crude and Clean Product supply and demand market dynamics and how to effectively manoeuvre operations to stride ahead of competitors.
Asia’s imports of sweet crude oil are on track to rise sharply in November as the region’s refiners pivot buying activity, at least in part, to minimise elevated desulphurisation costs.
Seaborne crude oil supplies made a step higher in October and early November, as core OPEC+ suppliers hike exports. But this is not necessarily bearish as it exposes a lack of spare capacity.
A rally in rates throughout the month of October was logically followed by an increase in laden crude tankers as seen through Vortexa data. With the physical reality of low tonne-miles settling in however, it remains to be seen whether that rally still has fuel to run on.
Calls on OPEC+ to raise crude supply faster than originally planned may not be the silver bullet some consuming nations expect as Vortexa data shows that OPEC+ sweet crude supplies are not keeping pace with sour barrels.
China is now facing yet another dilemma of a diesel supply shortage, as the global natural gas tightness and sky-high coal prices are driving factories to turn to diesel power generators amidst rising seasonal diesel demand from other sectors
Global gasoline cracks are soaring amidst growing market tightness. A cap on gasoline production and high blending costs could see cracks reaching regular 5-year highs this winter
Scrubber installations have shaped the employability and demand of VLCC tankers in a globally depressed crude freight market in 2021.
In this webinar, Vortexa’s Lead Analyst, Serena Huang, China Market Analyst, Emma Li, and Lead Freight Analyst, Arthur Richier, discussed some new opportunities and trading strategies that have evolved as a result of this new oil regime.
As the world tries to shake off the pandemic, Vortexa looks at top-level tanker demand trends to understand how the Crude and CPP markets have fared compared to the pre-covid period, the previous quarter and what is in store for the future.
Puzzling trends are emerging in the North Sea crude market with Forties cargoes increasingly seen offshore UK, yet at the same time Johan Svedrup flows to Asia are poised to rise.
In this insight we explore the underlying trends for OPEC crude exports, highlighting the importance of Saudi Arabia and UAE in the producer group, and assess the impact of China's import activity.
Having one eye set to analytical insights and the other on industry events, Vortexa provides a brief outlook on the shipping industry’s future. It seems that the tanker sector will need to surf high and wild waves, both in the short and the long term.
Vortexa provides an assessment of the impacts of hurricanes Ida and Nicholas on PADD 3 product and crude flows. Crude imports appear to be in for the greatest impacts.
In this webinar, Vortexa’s Senior Freight Analyst Arthur Richier and Freight Analyst Ioannis Papadimitriou deep-dive into whether optimism for recovery is well-placed, or if market fundamentals are likely to falter and the carefully stacked house of cards is likely to topple.
West African crude exports fell to a record low in August, underlying the acceleration of a structural decline that can be traced back to back to early 2020.
On the 24th August, Vortexa's US Team discussed Vortexa’s proprietary data and utilising it to anticipate what’s next for time spreads, locational arbs and product differentials.
The WTI market is set for structural weakness as rising West of Suez demand is more than offset by drastic policy changes in China and rising Middle Eastern supplies.
China issued a third batch of crude import quotas last week, but limited quotas will keep crude imports subdued for the rest of the year, which is further reinforced by a soft domestic demand outlook and limited product export quotas.
China’s contribution to crude tonne-miles has dwindled year-to-date according to Vortexa freight data as the country continues to decrease crude imports. Other nations have stepped in to fill the void as our data shows.
Russian seaborne crude and clean products have undergone a significant decline in July. We examine the key factors driving this shift, including rising pipeline flows and a tightening domestic gasoline market.
Is the OPEC+ output increase considered glad tidings or a false hope for the VLCC market?
With OPEC+ going through a standoff concerning the future production policy, a spike in crude exports in early July raises eyebrows. We investigate how sustainable this development is likely to be.
A series of domestic policy changes and market headwinds in recent months has upended China’s refining industry, putting a tight lid on the country’s crude imports and product exports. Vortexa sheds light on evolving trends in the country's crude imports and product exports.
Vortexa summarises the trends and dynamics that prevailed in the crude and product tanker market throughout Q2 2021
Vortexa looks deeply into oil shipments with strong visibility especially into the more opaque corners of the market to evaluate at the status quo of the oil demand recovery and evaluate if there is good reason for OPEC+ to be hesitant in unleashing oil supply onto the market.
Oil prices are on the rise and a $100 barrel of crude doesn’t seem as far fetched as it did a few months ago. The implications of crude reaching this strong, symbolic price are wide-ranging, especially when it comes to freight markets. Will OPEC+ step in and will this fuel a tanker market rally?
Vortexa shows diverging trends for crude arrivals heading to key Atlantic Basin buyers.
A flood of diluted bitumen cargoes has rapidly filled up storage tanks in Shandong, as traders and refiners scrambled to offload the cargoes before the consumption tax on diluted bitumen imports kicked in on 12 June. With this new tax in place, independent refiners are expected to cut back on diluted bitumen and raise Malaysian crude blends and fuel oil imports to meet their feedstocks requirements.
The OPEC+ announcement to stick to an increase in supply of crude has to date failed to kickstart a morose market. Using Argus Media pricing and Vortexa flows and freight data, we explore whether the expected second half of the year rally is due to materialise.
On the 27th May, Product Specialist Amy Lees and Machine Learning Engineer Christos Hadjinikolis analysed the quality of crude imported into the ARA region, a key refining hub in Northwest Europe, using Vortexa’s Software Development Kit (SDK). This blog investigates further into their methodology.
Cheaper Suezmax freight rates led to increased employment for US - Europe flows. Will this trend continue amidst a positive environment for European crude imports?
Declining volumes towards the Far East limits tanker demand, but long-haul voyages to India keep VLCC and Suezmax tanker utilisation in balance.
Atlantic Basin crude/condensate departures (including intra-country movements) totaled 21.2 mn b/d in April, the highest, albeit marginally, since May 2020.
Vortexa data shows at least 12mn bbl of crude has been delayed in discharging into key ports along India’s west coast, following the arrival of Cyclone Tauktae.
An ailing crude market has driven charterers to employ newbuild crude tankers for East-to-West of Suez CPP cargo transits, adversely impacting LR2 demand.
China's crude imports have slowed in April. A rebound in Q3 is faced with headwinds as refiners look to draw down their stockpiles amid elevated crude prices.
Vortexa outlines how naphtha has had a strong demand recovery but increasing demand for road fuels gasoline and diesel could incentivise refiners to adjust their yields to make less naphtha.
Claims from top trading houses and research analysts that oil demand is set for a roaring comeback as soon as this summer has divided market experts. Vortexa weighs in.
Vortexa outlines how Latin American countries are increasing imports of crude and refined products whilst simultaneously exporting refined products into storage hubs, suggesting an oversupplied region.
Vortexa outlines how global crude imports show a slow recovery for refiners.
A breakdown of the impact on oil, freight and flows in the aftermath of the Suez Canal blockage.
Our 'On the road to recovery: Asia's crude and products trade flows in 2021' webinar was hosted by Vortexa Lead Market Analyst, Serena Huang and Product Specialist, Teo Rui Jie on 16 March, who together discussed the outlook for Asia's trade flows and freight markets.
The VLCC market share of Johan Sverdrup volumes continues to increase at the expense of Aframax and Suezmax tanker segments, highlighting the demand for longer-haul routes.
Vortexa CEO Fabio Kuhn joined Bloomberg's IP Week panel discussion to discuss what demand recovery might look like across the commodities ecosystem in 2021, alongside leaders from Vitol, VARO Energy, and JP Morgan.
Australia's Altona refinery closure is expected to raise the country's refined product imports, with supplies from Exxonmobil's Singapore refineries. MR tanker freight rates to receive support from additional demand for the route.
We put the spotlight on the key US crude and product net flows to watch.
From the 26-28 January, Vortexa partnered with Argus to present at the Argus Crude Live online conference, alongside industry leaders.
What are some of the key crude arbs to watch in 2021? We highlight three crucial flows that will influence global oil markets this year.
More CPC Blend could be sailing to Asia in Q1 2021 driven by demand weakness in Europe and tightening UAE crude supplies to Asian refiners
A cargo of Libyan crude is heading to PADD 5 for the first time in almost a year.