In this insight, Vortexa examines the current status-quo for VLCC rates, and provides an outlook of whether the repositioning to the Western hemisphere can prove to be supportive in the months to come.
West African crude exports to China continue to decline in May, following multi-year lows in April.
Record diesel cracks have fostered supplies, visible in strong exports from Asia, the Middle East and the US. Also Russian diesel exports to Europe are stable at a high level. Accordingly markets are cooling and the focus shifts to gasoline and crude.
As the global diesel shortage rises, the world looks to Asia's spare refining capacity for additional supplies. In this insight, we assess how much relief Asia can realistically offer in the near-term.
PADD 3 diesel exports surged in April as import demand strengthened from key consumers in Latin America and Europe - the latter seeking to progressively reduce its reliance on Russian supply. PADD 3 exports rose despite stronger domestic diesel demand, once again underlying the growing global competition for diesel.
Europe has sucessfully made first steps in scaling back Russian oil imports and resupplying from other sources. But only about one third of the diesel challenge has been managed so far, already leading to record pricing. Global refining is severely constrained.
MR tankers in the Atlantic are facing a bumpy road after the first week of April, mainly driven by tonnage oversupply. However, the return of transatlantic gasoline demand could act as a deus ex machina and stage a revival for freight rates on both ends of the Atlantic Basin.
US crude/condensates exports to Europe are rising in April as the continent pivots further away from Russian supplies. As exports to Europe rise, so too are volumes loaded onto larger tankers, possibly indicating the start of a longer term trend.
Russian crude oil exports are rising strongly in April, adding pressure on oil prices on top of China's Covid nightmare and SPR release. But a number of factors speak for a renewed tightening of markets.
Global fuel oil prices are set to strengthen over the coming months being faced with a double whammy of rising demand and tight supplies. A crucial wildcard here is how much Russian fuel oil will find a home which could help alleviate the global supply shortage.
India's diesel exports set a record-high in March, as traders in the west snapped up every available barrel offered in the market. We weigh in on whether this export level is sustainable going forward.
As we move into the second quarter of this year, we analyse the effects of recent developments on the tonne-mile demand of crude and clean tanker fleets.
In this insight we examine the diverging trends in the flows of Russia's flagship crude grade Urals, when loaded in the Baltics versus Black Sea.
Russian overall oil exports are on a declined path, while crude exports are stable. European resupply needs and volatility/risk are supporting freight rates, while so far we do not see unusual dark shipping activity.
Growing sanctions on Russia raise the question of re-supply to Europe. We take a look at the Middle East, which based on its size would be promissing, but flow trends suggest otherwise.
A jet fuel supply crunch in the US and Europe is drawing long-haul barrels from the East, but supplies are capped at a time when refiners are maximising diesel yields and entering into planned maintenance.
As we enter the start of driving season for the Atlantic Basin, we have already seen refined product cracks rise to historical highs in both the US and Asia markets which have boosted global seaborne gasoline loadings to a 24-month record for March. Looking forward, high crude runs in a few selected regions could be the factor to cool gasoline cracks and refining margins somewhat.
Russian oil exports are increasingly struggling, given the strong dependence on "unfriendly countries". IEA's call of 2.5-3mbd crude supply losses looks plausible but is at loggerheads with range-bound oil prices.
Russian crude exports from the Baltic and Black Sea are now showing a clear redirection away from Europe. In this insight we explore the magnitude of this shift and where these crude cargoes are heading to instead.
Dirty products are the first energy exports out of Russia showing clear signs of declines. And there are good reasons for it, as well as relevant knock-on effects, including higher prices and Russian production shut-ins.
The EU has made the bold claim that a 100 bcm reduction of Russian gas can be achieved this year. LNG will need to play a leading role in this effort. The question remains whether Europe’s LNG infrastructure can keep up.
More Russian diesel may stay in European markets than initially thought, even though many buyers are staying away from cargoes for now. But key buyers are making up for this, limiting unusual outflows to Asia so far.
As the US and UK join a growing list of trading and refining companies in abandoning Russian oil barrels this week, the repercussions of an increasingly starved global oil market will deal a hard blow on Asia's economy.
Following the recent news of sanction placements as well as the oil and freight price behaviour over the past few days, we give a brief update on the fate of crude tanker markets, which looks ominous for shipowners.
In the face of mounting challenges to trade oil from Russia, Vortexa conducts a scenario analysis to evaluate how a change in the flow landscape could impact Crude & CPP tanker demand.
In this insight we examine the pros and cons of some key grades that could see/are seeing a boost in demand as European buyers shy away from Russian crude.
From an oil and shipping point of view, the Russia/Ukraine war may curtail or merely rerout the flows of Russian oil barrels, or even keep them largely unchanged. The importance of diesel may even top crude, with limited alternatives speaking for continued Russian-European trade.
European refiners' thirst for light-sweet crudes has propelled sweet crude premiums in recent weeks. As these premiums continue to test historical highs, it raises questions as to whether product prices are catching up fast enough to support this price momentum.
In this insight we analyse the main factors tightening European diesel supplies and driving backwardation to multiyear highs.
How CPP dynamics has shaped the MR freight market on the Atlantic as well as what is in store for the region in the short to medium term?
In this insight, we will drill into the details of export trends among the most important sweet crude producers for the global market.
Global crude inventories are at one of the lowest levels historically after a significant draw last year. Will this trend continue or is an inflection coming?
European LNG imports reach record highs in January, leaving less than 20% of free import terminal capacity - too little to cope with further losses of Russian gas.
In this insight we examine the reprcussions and motivations behind Europe and/or the US applying sanctions to Russian energy
Growing diesel tightness globally is fueling a rise in diesel cracks and a widening of the market backwardation. With refinery runs capped by high operational costs and upcoming maintenance activities, the diesel market could tighten further in the weeks ahead.
Global crude exports ended 2021 on a high, driven by higher volumes from key OPEC Middle East producers, the US and Russia.
Transatlantic rates reached an annual high recently, however are now easing. Vortexa is attempting to analyse the reasons behind this decline and whether this trend will resume.
Asian refiners find silver linings in the current market dynamics despite a looming threat from the fast-spreading Omicron variant.
Naphtha flows have seen strong volatility, especially for US sources barrels. Surging European imports and falling loadings are linked to hydrogen economics. The current lack of inflows is boosting cracks.
In last year’s freight forecast Vortexa described 2020 as one of the most volatile years on record. 2021 saw a more tepid year, with freight rates overall languishing at their lowest levels in years. Vortexa forecasts what 2022 has in store for freight markets.
Vortexa analyses competitive advantages of different refining setups and concludes from product export data that refiners in oil producing countries are currently outperforming plants in consuming nations thanks to feedstock costs.
As geopolitical tensions mount around Russia-US relations, we take stock of the former nation's role in supplying oil and gas.
In this blog, Vortexa attempts to assess Omicron’s impact on crude and product tanker markets.
In this blog, Vortexa attempts to assess Omicron’s impact on crude and product tanker markets.
Asia's gasoline cracks have staged a sharp correction in recent weeks. A shift in regional supply-demand dynamics has been the key driving force behind this.
The global diesel market is tight and refinery supplies are struggling to keep up with rising demand, leading to a draw on inventories across key storage hubs.
Global gasoline cracks are soaring amidst growing market tightness. A cap on gasoline production and high blending costs could see cracks reaching regular 5-year highs this winter
Global gasoline cracks are soaring amidst growing market tightness. A cap on gasoline production and high blending costs could see cracks reaching regular 5-year highs this winter
The global middle distillate market looks finely poised for this quarter as we enter a period of seasonally higher diesel consumption in the Atlantic Basin and rising east to west shipments.
As the world tries to shake off the pandemic, Vortexa looks at top-level tanker demand trends to understand how the Crude and CPP markets have fared compared to the pre-covid period, the previous quarter and what is in store for the future.
Puzzling trends are emerging in the North Sea crude market with Forties cargoes increasingly seen offshore UK, yet at the same time Johan Svedrup flows to Asia are poised to rise.
Unprecedented gas price surge in recent months has tilted United Kingdom into crisis mode, but the problem is spreading across Europe and the rest of the world.
As diesel strengthens against gasoline in the Atlantic Basin, will East of Suez diesel exports dampen the flames or will diesel continue to strengthen in the next six months?
After dramatic start to 2021, one might have expected a more settled summer LNG market. However, several key factors have generated some of the most interesting few months in the market. Vortexa reviews these developments to distil key drivers and emerging trends across the global LNG markets.
Firm naphtha demand and discount to LPG prices has boosted naphtha volumes. At the same time LR2 tankers are involved in trades of other products, letting LR1 to gobble up market share out of the Middle East.
The WTI market is set for structural weakness as rising West of Suez demand is more than offset by drastic policy changes in China and rising Middle Eastern supplies.
As global diesel loadings rise amid lagging demand, we explore how the supportive factors in the physical diesel market are not enough to withstand the pressure of a product in oversupply.
Vortexa evaluates if the current large volumes of seaborne diesel on the water are a demand pull or a supply push from refineries as they max out gasoline production.
Vortexa data shows global jet fuel flows still remain well below pre-Covid norms, with little sign of a meaningful demand recovery so far this summer. Flows heading to key demand centres in Europe and Asia remain flat, but the US is proving to be a rare bright spot for import activity.
Vortexa shows diverging trends for crude arrivals heading to key Atlantic Basin buyers.
The OPEC+ announcement to stick to an increase in supply of crude has to date failed to kickstart a morose market. Using Argus Media pricing and Vortexa flows and freight data, we explore whether the expected second half of the year rally is due to materialise.
On the 27th May, Product Specialist Amy Lees and Machine Learning Engineer Christos Hadjinikolis analysed the quality of crude imported into the ARA region, a key refining hub in Northwest Europe, using Vortexa’s Software Development Kit (SDK). This blog investigates further into their methodology.
May saw arrivals of crude and products in West of Suez surging, while East of Suez markets disappointed across the barrel. There is room for improvement, but low crude activity merits caution.
Cheaper Suezmax freight rates led to increased employment for US - Europe flows. Will this trend continue amidst a positive environment for European crude imports?
Elevated naphtha exports from Europe supported long-haul voyages in favour of LR2 tankers. Yet, will this trend contribute to uplift LR2 freight rates?
Declining volumes towards the Far East limits tanker demand, but long-haul voyages to India keep VLCC and Suezmax tanker utilisation in balance.
US Gulf Coast imports of fuel oil and VGO are climbing as the region’s refiners respond to rising US gasoline demand.
Atlantic Basin crude/condensate departures (including intra-country movements) totaled 21.2 mn b/d in April, the highest, albeit marginally, since May 2020.
Saudi Arabia's imports of dirty petroleum products are strengthening as the country gears up for peak summer demand.
A breakdown of the impact on oil, freight and flows in the aftermath of the Suez Canal blockage.
The recent drop in US refinery throughput following the North American winter storm has strengthened transatlantic gasoline flows, while exerting pressure on Medium Range (MR) tankers operating in the Americas. But looking forward, the tables could be turned.
European diesel/gasoil exports to PADD 1 in February are set to approach record highs seen in November amid tepid European demand and a cold snap in the US northeast.
ARA region's fuel oil exports have surged amid an influx of Baltic supplies, but limited arbitrage opportunities are proving to be a headwind for the market.
More CPC Blend could be sailing to Asia in Q1 2021 driven by demand weakness in Europe and tightening UAE crude supplies to Asian refiners
Floating storage told the story of the extraordinary moves in oil demand and supply in 2020.
US gasoline/blending components imports into its Atlantic coast (PADD 1) are set to fall to the lowest weekly total seen in months, for the DoE week ending 6 November.
On the 29th October, the global Vortexa team came together to discuss the middle distillates market, taking stock of the market from both sides of the pond, from Europe to America.
Our expert speakers Cosmo Kedros and Serena Huang discussed how low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) markets have been dramatically reshaped in 2020 in our webinar hosted on 30 September.
As the US northeast (PADD 1) heads into the winter season, one factor on the minds of diesel market participants is will the change of seasons drive a change in flows?
Diesel/gasoil exports from the US Gulf coast (PADD 3) in September are set to register the largest month-on-month decline seen since April.
The diversion of a gasoline blending component cargo away from the New York hub could foreshadow a weaker transatlantic pull for European gasoline/blending cargoes in coming weeks.r.
A second wave of diesel floating storage is now underway, as expectations grow for a further build.
How is clean products floating storage faring globally, and what regional dynamics can we see?
Sweden returned to the position of a net diesel exporter in June, amid improving European diesel consumption. Waning storage economics in the northwest European diesel market curbed the unusual flow of Russian diesel that moved into Swedish storage terminals observed over April-May.
North Sea crude exports have proven resilient among global buyers in the midst of the covid-19 pandemic, as firm demand in Asia has overcome freight rate spikes and weaker regional demand.