Although global middle distillates have led refined product cracks for the last 2.5 months, increased supplies have prompted a downturn in diesel and jet cracks while gasoline cracks take the lead in the refinery margin complex on a global level. Refineries appear now to be shifting towards gasoline production and away from middle distillates. Given the healthy economics, global gasoline supplies are on the rise as seen in the Vortexa export data.
In this insight, Vortexa examines the current status-quo for VLCC rates, and provides an outlook of whether the repositioning to the Western hemisphere can prove to be supportive in the months to come.
As the global diesel shortage rises, the world looks to Asia's spare refining capacity for additional supplies. In this insight, we assess how much relief Asia can realistically offer in the near-term.
Clean tanker rates in the East of Suez have remained at a high level despite erratic demand in the region. The main driver of this situation lies on the supply side. In this insight we dive into the dynamics behind rates in the East, and link the chain of events to trace the freight rate trajectory.
MR tankers in the Atlantic are facing a bumpy road after the first week of April, mainly driven by tonnage oversupply. However, the return of transatlantic gasoline demand could act as a deus ex machina and stage a revival for freight rates on both ends of the Atlantic Basin.
India's diesel exports set a record-high in March, as traders in the west snapped up every available barrel offered in the market. We weigh in on whether this export level is sustainable going forward.
On the 19th April, Vortexa's Market Analysis team came together to discuss oil & gas market dynamics in an environment of unseen uncertainty.
As we move into the second quarter of this year, we analyse the effects of recent developments on the tonne-mile demand of crude and clean tanker fleets.
In this insight we examine the diverging trends in the flows of Russia's flagship crude grade Urals, when loaded in the Baltics versus Black Sea.
Russian overall oil exports are on a declined path, while crude exports are stable. European resupply needs and volatility/risk are supporting freight rates, while so far we do not see unusual dark shipping activity.
In this insight we revisit Suezmax performance versus competing vessel classes at key regions in the aftermath of the Russian invasion.
Following up on our APAC Webinar, we are answered questions on Russian oil exports, and the implactions on European and Asian crude and product flows, as well as repercussions for clean and dirty shipping.
In this webinar, Vortexa’s Lead Analyst, Serena Huang, China Market Analyst, Emma Li, and Lead Freight Analyst, Arthur Richier, discussed some new opportunities and trading strategies that have evolved as a result of this new oil regime.
While crude rates are falling from the peaks reached following the Russian invasion in Ukraine, CPP tanker rates continue their rally, especially in the Eastern hemisphere. In this insight we will analyse the drivers which have triggered this development.
As the US and UK join a growing list of trading and refining companies in abandoning Russian oil barrels this week, the repercussions of an increasingly starved global oil market will deal a hard blow on Asia's economy.
Following the recent news of sanction placements as well as the oil and freight price behaviour over the past few days, we give a brief update on the fate of crude tanker markets, which looks ominous for shipowners.
In the face of mounting challenges to trade oil from Russia, Vortexa conducts a scenario analysis to evaluate how a change in the flow landscape could impact Crude & CPP tanker demand.
In this insight we examine the pros and cons of some key grades that could see/are seeing a boost in demand as European buyers shy away from Russian crude.
From an oil and shipping point of view, the Russia/Ukraine war may curtail or merely rerout the flows of Russian oil barrels, or even keep them largely unchanged. The importance of diesel may even top crude, with limited alternatives speaking for continued Russian-European trade.
Vortexa were proud to host the Energy Market Update 2022 this week, as a pre-IE Week celebration event to bring together industry leaders, held in a hidden venue in Mayfair, London.
European refiners' thirst for light-sweet crudes has propelled sweet crude premiums in recent weeks. As these premiums continue to test historical highs, it raises questions as to whether product prices are catching up fast enough to support this price momentum.
In this insight we analyse the main factors tightening European diesel supplies and driving backwardation to multiyear highs.
How CPP dynamics has shaped the MR freight market on the Atlantic as well as what is in store for the region in the short to medium term?
From the 26-28 January, Vortexa partnered with Argus to present at the Argus Crude Live online conference, alongside industry leaders.
Surging diesel prices have been at the forefront of market news in recent weeks. Can clean tanker markets benefit from this pricing trend?
In this insight we’ll analyse the main drivers behind the decline on naphtha and LPG freight rates drop as well as what's in store for the future.
Vortexa will make a recap of the key takeaways of crude tanker CPP voyages, while giving a view of whether this trend is sustainable in 2022.
Vortexa analyses flow developments in the Mediterranean, assessing the impact on freight rates and inferring on what lies ahead.
Transatlantic rates reached an annual high recently, however are now easing. Vortexa is attempting to analyse the reasons behind this decline and whether this trend will resume.
In this special webinar, Vortexa’s Market Analysis team came together to analyse where the global markets stand in the road to recovery and what challenges, opportunities and risks are waiting around the corner in 2022.
In last year’s freight forecast Vortexa described 2020 as one of the most volatile years on record. 2021 saw a more tepid year, with freight rates overall languishing at their lowest levels in years. Vortexa forecasts what 2022 has in store for freight markets.
In this blog, Vortexa attempts to assess Omicron’s impact on crude and product tanker markets.
Vortexa analyses the freight rate development of 4 vital CPP routes and investigates how the cross-vessel class dynamics could drive a domino effect on fleet repositioning.
A rally in rates throughout the month of October was logically followed by an increase in laden crude tankers as seen through Vortexa data. With the physical reality of low tonne-miles settling in however, it remains to be seen whether that rally still has fuel to run on.
The peculiarity of a global gasoline tightness even as the western hemisphere heads into winter and the seasonal rise in ethylene cracker runs in the east has led to an intensifying competition for naphtha molecules. Asia’s naphtha cracks are barreling to multi-year highs that show no signs of abating.
Scrubber installations have shaped the employability and demand of VLCC tankers in a globally depressed crude freight market in 2021.
As the world tries to shake off the pandemic, Vortexa looks at top-level tanker demand trends to understand how the Crude and CPP markets have fared compared to the pre-covid period, the previous quarter and what is in store for the future.
Having one eye set to analytical insights and the other on industry events, Vortexa provides a brief outlook on the shipping industry’s future. It seems that the tanker sector will need to surf high and wild waves, both in the short and the long term.
Vortexa provides an assessment of the impacts of hurricanes Ida and Nicholas on PADD 3 product and crude flows. Crude imports appear to be in for the greatest impacts.
In this webinar, Vortexa’s Senior Freight Analyst Arthur Richier and Freight Analyst Ioannis Papadimitriou deep-dive into whether optimism for recovery is well-placed, or if market fundamentals are likely to falter and the carefully stacked house of cards is likely to topple.
As diesel strengthens against gasoline in the Atlantic Basin, will East of Suez diesel exports dampen the flames or will diesel continue to strengthen in the next six months?
West African crude exports fell to a record low in August, underlying the acceleration of a structural decline that can be traced back to back to early 2020.
As CPP volumes on crude supertankers decline, Vortexa analyses the main factors of this occurrence and provides a view on the future of VLCC and Suezmax clean maiden voyages.
China’s contribution to crude tonne-miles has dwindled year-to-date according to Vortexa freight data as the country continues to decrease crude imports. Other nations have stepped in to fill the void as our data shows.
As we witness global naphtha cracks continuing strength since the spring, we can see that seaborne naphtha imports carry on their impressive recovery. Strong flows are expected to continue on the back of firm petrochemical demand East of Suez and European gasoline blending.
Asia’s diesel/gasoil exporters are facing growing headwinds in moving barrels to the West. Despite the challenges, Asia's diesel/gasoil balances have been moderated by three key drivers – China’s slowing exports, robust regional demand and newbuild VLCC arbitrage – maintaining regional cracks stable.
Latam imports of gasoline & diesel are enjoying a demand surge with volumes arriving from as far away as the East of Suez to fulfill hefty import requirements. However, despite higher volumes of clean products headed towards Latam over July, MR tanker US Gulf - Latam remained relatively unchanged, as a fair chunk of the inflow was supplied from West Africa.
Is the OPEC+ output increase considered glad tidings or a false hope for the VLCC market?
What are the dynamics behind this dirty-to-clean shift and what is the impact on the product and crude tanker markets?
On the 8th July, Shipping Professional Network of London (SPNL) hosted an industry leading panel with Freight Analytics Partner, Vortexa, to areas of the maritime industry that have been impacted by growing analytics and what further changes we can see coming.
Despite a really strong, unseasonal LPG price hike, VLGC rates are following a different path. Vortexa attempts to shed a light on this divergent pattern.
Vortexa summarises the trends and dynamics that prevailed in the crude and product tanker market throughout Q2 2021
Oil prices are on the rise and a $100 barrel of crude doesn’t seem as far fetched as it did a few months ago. The implications of crude reaching this strong, symbolic price are wide-ranging, especially when it comes to freight markets. Will OPEC+ step in and will this fuel a tanker market rally?
Vortexa has launched a suite of brand new Freight Analytics features so charterers, ship owners, analysts and traders can make high-stakes strategic freight decisions with confidence and seize lucrative opportunities before others.
Despite encouraging LNG pricing fundamentals, freight rates could plateau on the back of thinning US exports, reduction in tonne-miles and an influx of LNG carrier tonnage.
A flood of diluted bitumen cargoes has rapidly filled up storage tanks in Shandong, as traders and refiners scrambled to offload the cargoes before the consumption tax on diluted bitumen imports kicked in on 12 June. With this new tax in place, independent refiners are expected to cut back on diluted bitumen and raise Malaysian crude blends and fuel oil imports to meet their feedstocks requirements.
As European gasoline and blending component imports dominate seaborne flows into PADD 1, we take a look at if this could be the beginning of a long term structural change. We also explore other points of gasoline resupply into PADD 1.
China’s new consumption tax on imports of mixed aromatics and light cycle oil (LCO) is about to turn the tides of its domestic supply and exports of gasoline and diesel/gasoil. Downside risks on MR tanker demand looms ahead.
As the US Colonial pipeline system restarts after its historic outage and panic buying subsides in the East Coast and Southeastern markets, we look towards waterbourne gasoline cargos to solve the regional stock imbalances.
Should the Colonial Pipeline network remain down for more than a few days, East Coast and Southeastern markets will start to see supply hiccups and related price spikes.
On the 6th May, our Analyst team came together to discuss the Clean Petroleum Products (CPP) and Dirty Petroleum Products (DPP) market in light of recent global events.
Claims from top trading houses and research analysts that oil demand is set for a roaring comeback as soon as this summer has divided market experts. Vortexa weighs in.
On 27th April 2021, industry leaders and expert analysts from Vortexa, ZE PowerGroup, Argus Media and Windward discussed the rise of analytics and their impact on freight and energy markets.
Vortexa outlines how global crude imports show a slow recovery for refiners.
Explore Q1 2021 freight market update based on Vortexa data.
A breakdown of the impact on oil, freight and flows in the aftermath of the Suez Canal blockage.
As naphtha continues to find outlets towards the East, LR2 utilisation is on the rise in March, helping resurrect rates from multi-year lows. But widening LPG discounts to naphtha are expected to put a lid on Asia's naphtha imports in the coming months.
The recent drop in US refinery throughput following the North American winter storm has strengthened transatlantic gasoline flows, while exerting pressure on Medium Range (MR) tankers operating in the Americas. But looking forward, the tables could be turned.
The VLCC market share of Johan Sverdrup volumes continues to increase at the expense of Aframax and Suezmax tanker segments, highlighting the demand for longer-haul routes.
To kick off IP Week 2021, Reuters Events and Vortexa were proud to partner on the event 'Driving Freight Forward: A digital analytics roadmap to growing the freight markets of the future' on 22 February 2021.
Australia's Altona refinery closure is expected to raise the country's refined product imports, with supplies from Exxonmobil's Singapore refineries. MR tanker freight rates to receive support from additional demand for the route.
From the 26-28 January, Vortexa partnered with Argus to present at the Argus Crude Live online conference, alongside industry leaders.
Vortexa are proud to announce membership of SPNL for 2021 as the Freight Analytics Partner.
The recent bonanza of exports enjoyed by LNG producers such as the US, fuelled by a demand crunch in Asia, has rippled through freight markets for LNG carriers.
Several gasoline and diesel cargoes have diverted away from the US East coast hub of New York Harbor so far this month, suggesting a current surplus in PADD 1 that could prompt prices to recede.
Explore freight markets forecast for 2021 based on Vortexa data.
On the 7th December, Vortexa are proud to be have been involved in the Tech in Commodities 2020, ran in conjunction with SWITCH 2020, delivering a panel with key industry leaders from Braemar ACM Shipbroking, Norden, and Windward
On 9th December, expert analysts from Vortexa, Windward and C4ADS came together to discuss the impact of trade sanctions on oil and shipping markets. Watch the webinar on demand!
Floating storage told the story of the extraordinary moves in oil demand and supply in 2020.
LR tanker rates are rallying higher following a strong month of October-loading naphtha exports from the Mediterranean and the Mideast Gulf heading East, with the momentum set to continue in November.
This report brings together Windward intelligence and Vortexa data on maritime risk factors, dark movements, vessel specifics and cargo flows in a case study examining the risk posed to the global maritime fleet of association with the Venezuelan oil trade.
On the 29th October, the global Vortexa team came together to discuss the middle distillates market, taking stock of the market from both sides of the pond, from Europe to America.
The global build of unemployed tonnage is the cause of recent the weakness and a bleak outlook in clean tanker freight markets, as evidenced by a month-on-month drop in freight rates across 4 out of 5 routes analysed.
Vortexa Lead Freight Analyst, Arthur Richier, discussed the future of green shipping in his presentation, discussing topics such as IMO goals, and the challenges and available solutions for global tanker fleets and alternative fuels.
Crude tanker freight markets remain a prisoner of challenging circumstances, even as the seasonally strongest quarter of the year is upon them.
Asia's low sulphur fuel oil market is expected to tighten in Q4 2020. Global refinery runs and OPEC+ production levels are key signposts to watch for.
An uptick in gasoline loadings from Europe to West Africa since the beginning of September, compared to a calm summer has led to a strengthening of freight rates in the clean tanker market for LR1s.
Persistently lower Black Sea crude loadings over July-September, compared to more buoyant export levels in the first half of the year, continue to weigh on the regional tanker market rates.
US crude loadings to China are en course to reach a 4-month high in September, as more bookings emerge along the route for October.
In the wake of Hurricane Laura, we look at the impact of on vessel availability in the clean and dirty fleet segments in the US Gulf coast.
The number of tankers used for crude and products floating storage activity around the world is down by 36% from two and a half months ago.
Utilisation rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) fell to 44% in August, their lowest level this year following stymied global demand recovery for crude and a significant loss of cargoes compared to 2019 levels, according to Vortexa data.
Diesel and jet fuel loadings onto newbuild VLCCs have hit a year-to-date peak in July. Rising cargo volumes aboard VLCCs reinforce the view that east of Suez traders recently become increasingly keen on loading cargoes for longer haul journeys, potentially for floating storage.
Register now for our Freight webinar, discussing the tanker markets downfall in H1 2020, and the key drivers for the market today. Presented with Braemar.
Aframax tankers trading in the Mediterranean are entering a period with rates at multi-year lows, amid low cargo volumes and a build in surplus tonnage. We investigate the current state of the Aframax Mediterranean market and look to where it is heading through Vortexa data.