In this webinar, Vortexa’s Lead Analyst, Serena Huang, China Market Analyst, Emma Li, and Lead Freight Analyst, Arthur Richier, discussed some new opportunities and trading strategies that have evolved as a result of this new oil regime.
In this webinar, Vortexa’s Senior Freight Analyst Arthur Richier and Freight Analyst Ioannis Papadimitriou deep-dive into whether optimism for recovery is well-placed, or if market fundamentals are likely to falter and the carefully stacked house of cards is likely to topple.
OPEC+ crude exports strongly disappoint with the exception only of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. On products, lofty prices are inciting spikes in flows, but available volumes may not be enough.
China’s crude trade flows continue falling trend as crude imports from the Middle East & Africa diverge, while crude imports from Americas & North Sea ease. At the same time, clean product imports and fuel oil imports are falling and trending lower as typhoon disruptions further dampen arrivals. Can China turn things around?
Oil & gas prices and diffs remain buoyed across the board. Crude and refined products are kept alive by supply limitations in the form of outages, strategic decisions and structural issues. LNG and LPG meanwhile run from record to record, helped primarily by strong demand for power, petchem and final consumption.
We're seeing clear and strong indications that the demand repercussions have been substantial over recent months, but also some signs of hope with improved activity in India and Japan in August.
On the 24th August, Vortexa's US Team discussed Vortexa’s proprietary data and utilising it to anticipate what’s next for time spreads, locational arbs and product differentials.
Firm naphtha demand and discount to LPG prices has boosted naphtha volumes. At the same time LR2 tankers are involved in trades of other products, letting LR1 to gobble up market share out of the Middle East.
Our cross-barrel flow review reveals some shortcomings on the supply side that underpin markets, especially for crude, LNG and LPG. As for transportation fuels, a growing amount of indicators points at renewed bouts of oversupply, with the Delta variant weighing on demand, leading to higher seaborne supplies.
The WTI market is set for structural weakness as rising West of Suez demand is more than offset by drastic policy changes in China and rising Middle Eastern supplies.
China issued a third batch of crude import quotas last week, but limited quotas will keep crude imports subdued for the rest of the year, which is further reinforced by a soft domestic demand outlook and limited product export quotas.
Gasoline was the leading contributor to refining margins ever since mid to late Q1 2021. In this report we will look at the chances of whether and how long gasoline can continue to outperform, specifically as opposed to the other main motor fuel, diesel.
Read our latest briefing to gain insights into the key issues currently driving global oil and gas markets. Hot topics include: weakness emerging in China's crude oil imports, the impact of OPEC+ on freight markets and the mixed fortunes for clean petroleum product markets in the Atlantic Basin.
As we witness global naphtha cracks continuing strength since the spring, we can see that seaborne naphtha imports carry on their impressive recovery. Strong flows are expected to continue on the back of firm petrochemical demand East of Suez and European gasoline blending.
As we witness global naphtha cracks continuing strength since the spring, we can see that seaborne naphtha imports carry on their impressive recovery. Strong flows are expected to continue on the back of firm petrochemical demand East of Suez and European gasoline blending.
Global imports of oil & gas have hit a 2021 low in July, but surging exports imply hopes for a much better future. We review July flows on a product and region basis and conclude that solid signs are in place for a more pronounced recovery.
Russian seaborne crude and clean products have undergone a significant decline in July. We examine the key factors driving this shift, including rising pipeline flows and a tightening domestic gasoline market.
Asia’s diesel/gasoil exporters are facing growing headwinds in moving barrels to the West. Despite the challenges, Asia's diesel/gasoil balances have been moderated by three key drivers – China’s slowing exports, robust regional demand and newbuild VLCC arbitrage – maintaining regional cracks stable.
Making a journey across all segments of the barrel, we discover quite some bullish elements in recent seaborne trade flows. Especially, the very light end of the barrel - from LNG over LPG and naphtha to gasoline - is seeing various spots of strength, that do mutually reinforce each other, frequently in West vs East of Suez plays.
As global diesel loadings rise amid lagging demand, we explore how the supportive factors in the physical diesel market are not enough to withstand the pressure of a product in oversupply.
A series of domestic policy changes and market headwinds in recent months has upended China’s refining industry, putting a tight lid on the country’s crude imports and product exports. Vortexa sheds light on evolving trends in the country's crude imports and product exports.
On the 27th May, Product Specialist Amy Lees and Machine Learning Engineer Christos Hadjinikolis analysed the quality of crude imported into the ARA region, a key refining hub in Northwest Europe, using Vortexa’s Software Development Kit (SDK). This blog investigates further into their methodology.
Claims from top trading houses and research analysts that oil demand is set for a roaring comeback as soon as this summer has divided market experts. Vortexa weighs in.
On 27th April 2021, industry leaders and expert analysts from Vortexa, ZE PowerGroup, Argus Media and Windward discussed the rise of analytics and their impact on freight and energy markets.
Vortexa's infographic analyses gasoline/blending components volumes loading and in transit as they start to slow. As US refineries increase runs to meet domestic demand, European imports could be forced to find alternative destinations.
On Thursday September 25, 2020, Vortexa detected a diversion of reformate away from New York. Tanker Challenge Prospect 2, chartered by Repsol and lifting out of Tarragona, changed destinations and instead of crossing westbound across the Atlantic, delivered its cargo to Amsterdam.
Vortexa's infographic analyses oil & gas trading concerns associated with the vessel jam in Suez Canal. The most interesting flow concerns biodiesel feedstocks to Europe, where about a full quarter of monthly import needs may currently be stuck.
A breakdown of the impact on oil, freight and flows in the aftermath of the Suez Canal blockage.
In a video, Vortexa's Managing Director Clay Seigle reviews continuing events at the Suez Canal and discusses potential oil market repercussions.
Vortexa has so far identified ten tanker ships carrying about 13 million barrels of Mideast crude that could be affected by Tuesday's blockage of the Suez Canal. More oil flows could be at risk unless the interruption is quickly resolved.
Our 'On the road to recovery: Asia's crude and products trade flows in 2021' webinar was hosted by Vortexa Lead Market Analyst, Serena Huang and Product Specialist, Teo Rui Jie on 16 March, who together discussed the outlook for Asia's trade flows and freight markets.
Which Texas clean product export terminals were impacted the most during the freeze? Our infographic details the terminals with the largest weekly export volatility and who is recovering the quickest.
Vortexa CEO Fabio Kuhn joined Bloomberg's IP Week panel discussion to discuss what demand recovery might look like across the commodities ecosystem in 2021, alongside leaders from Vitol, VARO Energy, and JP Morgan.
Australia's Altona refinery closure is expected to raise the country's refined product imports, with supplies from Exxonmobil's Singapore refineries. MR tanker freight rates to receive support from additional demand for the route.
European diesel/gasoil exports to PADD 1 in February are set to approach record highs seen in November amid tepid European demand and a cold snap in the US northeast.
We put the spotlight on the key US crude and product net flows to watch.
The cold snap in North Asia ensured steady LPG export demand throughout January even as US propane prices reached their highest levels in over two years.
Which regions will see the largest growth in new renewable diesel capacity additions in 2021? Our infographic details the top importing and exporting regions for biodiesel and feedstocks.
ARA region's fuel oil exports have surged amid an influx of Baltic supplies, but limited arbitrage opportunities are proving to be a headwind for the market.
What are some of the key crude arbs to watch in 2021? We highlight three crucial flows that will influence global oil markets this year.
China's LNG imports have soared to record levels as a cold snap sweeps through the country. But a slow down in purchases have been seen in recent weeks, as importers turn away from sky-high premiums.
More CPC Blend could be sailing to Asia in Q1 2021 driven by demand weakness in Europe and tightening UAE crude supplies to Asian refiners
Asia’s growing naphtha demand has outpaced arbitrage supplies in December, but higher exports from key suppliers should cap further upsides on naphtha cracks.
Real-time access of global oil tanker tracking data is key for more transparent and accurate oil market intelligence. Discover the key benefits tanker tracking offers to oil & gas industry players.
A cargo of Libyan crude is heading to PADD 5 for the first time in almost a year.
On 9th December, expert analysts from Vortexa, Windward and C4ADS came together to discuss the impact of trade sanctions on oil and shipping markets. Watch the webinar on demand!
Floating storage told the story of the extraordinary moves in oil demand and supply in 2020.
Vortexa sees a marked shift in French clean product flows in the aftermath of the country's recent nationwide lockdown.
Singapore’s fuel oil market has reached one of its tightest periods so far this year amid on and offshore inventory draws.
Discover the key benefits of Vortexa's new net flows screen with an Infographic on US Gulf coast crude flows.
On 16th November, our Americas Analyst and Product Specialist team reviewed what the potential impact of the incoming Biden administration and 117th Congress will have on the global oil markets.
Australia’s refining sector has been dealt another blow by BP’s recent announcement to shut its Kwinana refinery in Western Australia, and convert it into an import terminal by early next year.
This report brings together Windward intelligence and Vortexa data on maritime risk factors, dark movements, vessel specifics and cargo flows in a case study examining the risk posed to the global maritime fleet of association with the Venezuelan oil trade.
Discover the key benefits of Vortexa's new net flows screen with an Infographic on European diesel flows.
The global build of unemployed tonnage is the cause of recent the weakness and a bleak outlook in clean tanker freight markets, as evidenced by a month-on-month drop in freight rates across 4 out of 5 routes analysed.
Australia’s Lytton and Geelong refineries are being threatened with permanent shutdown as the compounding impact of the pandemic on oil demand drags on. We postulate the changes on crude and refined products flows if the refineries shut.
Vortexa’s CEO Fabio Kuhn delivered a presentation on Scaling Human Energy Market Expertise with AI, as part of ZE Powergroup’s Global Tech Summit. In the presentation, he discussed the digitisation of the industry and how this affects making faster and smarter trading decisions.
Our expert speakers Cosmo Kedros and Serena Huang discussed how low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) markets have been dramatically reshaped in 2020 in our webinar hosted on 30 September.
Asia's low sulphur fuel oil market is expected to tighten in Q4 2020. Global refinery runs and OPEC+ production levels are key signposts to watch for.
Diesel/gasoil exports from the US Gulf coast (PADD 3) in September are set to register the largest month-on-month decline seen since April.
The diversion of a gasoline blending component cargo away from the New York hub could foreshadow a weaker transatlantic pull for European gasoline/blending cargoes in coming weeks.r.
US Gulf coast gasoline exports have been seeking alternative markets in the region in recent weeks, beyond top markets Mexico and Brazil.
An uptick in gasoline loadings from Europe to West Africa since the beginning of September, compared to a calm summer has led to a strengthening of freight rates in the clean tanker market for LR1s.
Stay up to date on the ramifications of China’s long-standing port congestion, discover why Singapore’s fuel oil arbitrage flows from Europe and South Americas are in decline and get to grips with why Asia’s crude floating storage levels could be primed for resurgence.
The effects of Hurricane Laura, which made landfall on the US Gulf coast on 27 August, continue to be felt in the flows of energy commodities out of facilities in or near the path of the storm.
Persistently lower Black Sea crude loadings over July-September, compared to more buoyant export levels in the first half of the year, continue to weigh on the regional tanker market rates.
US crude loadings to China are en course to reach a 4-month high in September, as more bookings emerge along the route for October.
How is clean products floating storage faring globally, and what regional dynamics can we see?
In the wake of Hurricane Laura, we look at the impact of on vessel availability in the clean and dirty fleet segments in the US Gulf coast.
Infographic on India's recent clean petroleum product exports since the onset of covid-19
Reduced gasoline imports and lower local refinery production have led to a large deficit in the total volume of gasoline supplied to PADD 1 during the driving season this year vs. 2019.
On 27 August, our US Analyst & Specialist team looked into the trends of the gasoline market in the US, the market reaction to the pandemic, and what recovery we can see coming in the second half of 2020.
US crude exports fell slightly month-on-month in August, but are still up 20% from last year.
Saudi Arabia's fuel oil imports typically rise towards the peak power demand season in summer, but early indications so far in Q3 2020 point to a more subdued seasonal uptick compared with prior years.
On 14 July 2020, we held a webinar discussing the dynamics of US crude exports to China and what predictions we can make from the data. Watch on demand now.
Global diesel arbitrage flows are shifting as the pace of demand recovery and inventory draws vary across regions. We highlight the key global diesel trends across Europe, Asia and the Americas.
Crude exports from the US port of Corpus Christi have dominated Houston's exports in the past ten months on the back of increased connectivity to the Permian and Eagle Ford basins.
This Insight report examines a high risk scenario for freight tonnage if US sanctions for PDVSA were to be extended to tankers involved in Venezuelan movements in the past two years.
The share of US marine fuels arriving into the global bunkering and storage hub Panama rose sharply in the first half of this year, following the shift to IMO-compliant marine fuels. This displaced previously dominant high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) from South America, as we highlight in this article.
Sweden returned to the position of a net diesel exporter in June, amid improving European diesel consumption. Waning storage economics in the northwest European diesel market curbed the unusual flow of Russian diesel that moved into Swedish storage terminals observed over April-May.
North Sea crude exports have proven resilient among global buyers in the midst of the covid-19 pandemic, as firm demand in Asia has overcome freight rate spikes and weaker regional demand.
The share of US LPG exports heading to Asia rose in the first half of the year, offsetting a drop in transatlantic flows. Looking ahead, the momentum of US exports to China in particular will hinge upon the competitiveness against rival Middle East producers.
Brazil's latest seaborne refined products flows reflect the dampening of domestic road fuels demand in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. We take stock of the impact, and see in our data that lower gasoline demand pushed exports in May higher.
Fuel oil floating storage became a key feature of the global oil market even before the more recent pandemic-driven explosion in offshore crude and clean products inventories.
You can now watch our on-demand webinar discussing the recovery of demand and changes in floating storage in the Asia Pacific region. Read our key takeaways here!