Latin America has been a key importer of road transportation fuels in 2021. However fundamentals, seasonality and shipping indicators are signaling that the demand pull may be behind us.
With the US driving season having come to an end, a pillar of support also breaks away for Asian gasoline cracks. But regional fundamentals and strong petchem operations are set to keep gasoline cracks supported.
Asia’s diesel/gasoil exporters are facing growing headwinds in moving barrels to the West. Despite the challenges, Asia's diesel/gasoil balances have been moderated by three key drivers – China’s slowing exports, robust regional demand and newbuild VLCC arbitrage – maintaining regional cracks stable.
China’s new consumption tax on imports of mixed aromatics and light cycle oil (LCO) is about to turn the tides of its domestic supply and exports of gasoline and diesel/gasoil. Downside risks on MR tanker demand looms ahead.
Singapore’s fuel oil market has reached one of its tightest periods so far this year amid on and offshore inventory draws.
Australia’s refining sector has been dealt another blow by BP’s recent announcement to shut its Kwinana refinery in Western Australia, and convert it into an import terminal by early next year.
Australia’s Lytton and Geelong refineries are being threatened with permanent shutdown as the compounding impact of the pandemic on oil demand drags on. We postulate the changes on crude and refined products flows if the refineries shut.
We examine how Alaska’s jet fuel market has run against the wider global trend of persistently weak demand.
South Korea’s jet fuel exports to the US West Coast (PADD 5) rose to 115,000 b/d in July, the highest in at least four years, according to Vortexa data. This follows improved arbitrage economics after an uptick in PADD 5 jet fuel prices and falling clean tanker rates in June.