Having one eye set to analytical insights and the other on industry events, Vortexa provides a brief outlook on the shipping industry’s future. It seems that the tanker sector will need to surf high and wild waves, both in the short and the long term.
West African crude exports fell to a record low in August, underlying the acceleration of a structural decline that can be traced back to back to early 2020.
As CPP volumes on crude supertankers decline, Vortexa analyses the main factors of this occurrence and provides a view on the future of VLCC and Suezmax clean maiden voyages.
China issued a third batch of crude import quotas last week, but limited quotas will keep crude imports subdued for the rest of the year, which is further reinforced by a soft domestic demand outlook and limited product export quotas.
Latam imports of gasoline & diesel are enjoying a demand surge with volumes arriving from as far away as the East of Suez to fulfill hefty import requirements. However, despite higher volumes of clean products headed towards Latam over July, MR tanker US Gulf - Latam remained relatively unchanged, as a fair chunk of the inflow was supplied from West Africa.
Is the OPEC+ output increase considered glad tidings or a false hope for the VLCC market?
Atlantic Basin crude/condensate departures (including intra-country movements) totaled 21.2 mn b/d in April, the highest, albeit marginally, since May 2020.
An ailing crude market has driven charterers to employ newbuild crude tankers for East-to-West of Suez CPP cargo transits, adversely impacting LR2 demand.
Vortexa's infographic analyses gasoline/blending components volumes loading and in transit as they start to slow. As US refineries increase runs to meet domestic demand, European imports could be forced to find alternative destinations.
Latin American diesel imports via ship-to-ship transfers (STS) off west Africa are on track to hit a multiyear high of around 230,000 mt in March, up from less than 90,000 mt in February.
An uptick in gasoline loadings from Europe to West Africa since the beginning of September, compared to a calm summer has led to a strengthening of freight rates in the clean tanker market for LR1s.
Utilisation rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) fell to 44% in August, their lowest level this year following stymied global demand recovery for crude and a significant loss of cargoes compared to 2019 levels, according to Vortexa data.