Oil & Gas
Added Feb 11, 2021

US Flows To Watch: February 2021

Share this article
 
 

 
 

 

US Flows To Watch: February 2021

Chart 1: US Crude Exports vs Imports

  • US crude flows have undergone radical shifts over the past two years. Rising domestic production has increasingly found its way towards the export market, flipping the US' status increasingly towards that of a net exporter. In fact since December 2019, the US has been a net exporter every month barring May-June 2020.
  • In January 2021, exports outstripped import volumes to the tune of 700,000 b/d, up from 270,000 b/d surplus the same time last year. Weaker US oil products demand has forced crude import activity lower over the past 12 months.
  • Read more in our recent report: 'Opportunities in Crude Freight and Storage Markets'

Chart 2: US CPP Net Exports by PADD

  • Declining US fuels demand is also reflected by the broad increase in US CPP exports in recent months. 
  • The US Gulf Coast (PADD 3), the largest hub for refining capacity in the US, has been steadily lifting exports of transportation fuels and LPG since the second half of 2020.
  • In contrast to rising PADD 3 exports, the US Northeast (PADD1) is becoming increasingly reliant on CPP imports from overseas, with regional refining capacity threatened by closures. PADD1 imports from overseas are more economical than seaborne imports from PADD 3 due to Jones Act shipping regulation.
  • Read more about US CPP exports in our recent Insight note 'US LPG exports meet Asia's burgeoning demand'
Chart 3: US Gasoline vs Diesel Net Exports

  • The US has historically been a diesel exporter, but a seasonal net importer/exporter of gasoline/blending components. Recent trends suggest that both products' net flows are shrinking.
  • Diesel net exports are falling, driven partly by elevated PADD 1 imports. While diesel typically flows west to east across the Atlantic, European diesel cargoes began heading westbound in October and are still flowing in February, supported by colder weather in the US Northeast.
  • Gasoline/blending components flows oscillate from net imports to net exports, reflecting the surge in demand that takes place during the summer driving season. But the impact of Covid-19 on reduced road fuel consumption in key export markets in Latin America and domestically is stifling US refinery output.
  • Net exports of US gasoline/blending components stood at just 106,000 b/d in January 2021, down from 380,000 b/d a year earlier.

To watch Vortexa Managing Director Clay Seigle discuss 'How can US refineries be positioned to compete in the global marketplace in the face of falling domestic demand?" during the USAEE Webinar on 'Oil Trade: Can the US Remain a Net Exporter?', head over to this link. 

 

For more US-focused analysis, check out our '2021 Trends to Watch in US Energy' special report 

 

The latest news

Sep 22, 2021
Event News
blog-events
Listing_Summary-Vortexa_July2019

In this webinar, Vortexa’s Senior Freight Analyst Arthur Richier and Freight Analyst Ioannis Papadimitriou deep-dive into whether optimism for recovery is well-placed, or if market fundamentals are likely to falter and the carefully stacked house of cards is likely to topple. 

blog-tag
getintouch-section
Sep 20, 2021
Oil & Gas
blog-events
market-landscape
name
Listing_Summary-Vortexa_July2019

OPEC+ crude exports strongly disappoint with the exception only of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. On products, lofty prices are inciting spikes in flows, but available volumes may not be enough.

subscribe_insight-form
blog-tag
market-form
banner_bg
getintouch-section
post_body
location
Sep 15, 2021
Oil & Gas
blog-events
market-landscape
name
Listing_Summary-Vortexa_July2019

China’s crude trade flows continue falling trend as crude imports from the Middle East & Africa diverge, while crude imports from Americas & North Sea ease. At the same time, clean product imports and fuel oil imports are falling and trending lower as typhoon disruptions further dampen arrivals. Can China turn things around?

subscribe_insight-form
blog-tag
market-form
banner_bg
getintouch-section
post_body
location

Get in touch today for a free trial