Americas crude export growth shifts from North to South

As US seaborne crude/condensate exports rebounded m-o-m in August – from lowest levels seen in over three years, it belies a longer-term trend of declining exports out of the US. This recovery can be attributed to widening WTI arbs to Europe and Asia in late July driving increased exports to Asia as well as Indian buyers of Russian crude looking to diversify their purchases towards mainstream USGC barrels as adjustment to heightened sanctions enforcement. 

There has also been an emergence of a new destination in Africa where US light-sweet barrels have found appetite. Dangote refinery in Nigeria has pivoted towards barrels from across the Atlantic amid payment/currency issues with state-owned NNPC. Although, not as significant in terms of absolute volumes ~150kbd of US crude made its way to Dangote, Nigeria year to date.

US seaborne crude/condensate exports by destination region (mbd) 

Now back to addressing the elephant in the room - the longer-term trend of declining US crude exports which started off since Q2 of 2024 and have reached a point where exports are down ~300kbd in H1 2025 vs H1 2024. Some key factors behind this decline can be attributed to refinery closures in Europe as well as relatively stable competing short-haul supplies from Med, viz. Libya. In Asia, refiners choose East of Suez and WAf barrels instead of long-haul US Gulf Coast barrels as arbs were tight.  

All is not as doom and gloom as it seems for Americas crude as the momentum of crude exports has shifted from North to South America. We say this because rest of Americas seaborne crude exports increased by over 600kbd in 1H 2025 compared to 1H 2024, more than offsetting the ~300kbd declines out of the US over the same period. This growth is driven mainly by new production out of Brazil and Guyana but also the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion providing new outlet for Canadian crude and re-entry of Venezuelan crude into the USGC. What is worth noting here is that as of August, around 50% of these exports from rest of Americas are that of sweet crude – mainly medium and light-sweet.

Americas (excl. US) seaborne crude/condensate exports by origin country (mbd, LHS) vs sweet crude share (%, RHS) 

We won’t discuss much about Canadian crude as this supply is capped by infrastructure constraints at Vancouver, upcoming refinery closures on the US West Coast as well as high dependency on Chinese buying appetite and we have discussed this in detail in a recent Canada focussed webinar which can now be found on demand on our market insights page.  

Now focusing on growth factors, the first one is here is Guyana, which loaded the first cargo of light-sweet Golden Arrowhead crude from the FPSO One Guyana late August with ~200kbd of exports expected in September and beyond. This builds upon the existing ~700kbd exports out of Guyana. Then there is also the increasing production from Brazil with FPSO Alexandre de Gusmão starting up recently and FPSO Bacalhau set to start production this year. Further south, new pipeline connectivity as well as terminal expansions in Argentina will provide outlet for crude from Vaca Muerta shale – which we expect to add another 100-150kbd of light-sweet crude to the export markets.

Mainstream Suezmax tonne-miles demand out of the Atlantic Basin (tonne-miles) 

All this new supply from South America means more competition for US crude oil in the European market which is already well supplied with light sweet crude. The bright side though can be seen on the freight side with Suezmax tonne-miles demand, which has benefitted from strong Atlantic Basin crude exports driven by favourable arbs and replacement buying of Russia crude grades subject to sanctions in the short-term, but Guyanese and Brazilian export growth should keep Suezmax tonne-mile demand supported in the medium term.