In contrast, we see competing grades pushed out of Europe and the Mediterranean, which is well supplied with light crude.  

Fewer WTI shipments are pointed towards Europe, with predictions for NW Europe and the Med down by around 300kbd m-o-m in the first half of July and a reorientation of cargoes towards Southeast Asia and Canada East Coast. There are also fewer Azeri Light cargoes pointing towards the Med, down 34% m-o-m, and ample light crude supply has sufficiently depressed CPC differentials – combined with a more favourable Brent-Dubai EFS – to again raise interest from Asia-Pacific buyers for August-loading CPC (Argus).  

The strength of Nigerian grades, however, is likely to subside later in the year, as summer seasonal demand for inputs for power generation in the Mediterranean calms, and as new competing supplies come online in the Americas, such as Guyana’s new light sweet crude grade – Golden Arrowhead – to be exported from the 250kbd One Guyana FPSO starting in September 2025 (Reuters). 

Nigeria domestic crude cargoes 

Internally, Dangote is expected to take in less than half of its crude from domestic grades. For August, Nigeria’s state-owned NNPC is said to supply 5 cargoes of crude to Dangote, two cargoes of Bonny Light, and one cargo of Okwuibome, Amenam, and Escravos (Argus). This would be down from the 8 cargoes delivered to Lekki, Dangote in June 2025.  

The remainder of Dangote’s crude intake is made up of WTI imports from the US, with over 300kbd of the grade expected to discharge at Dangote in July 2025, a record amount covering around 46% of Dangote inputs at full capacity (650kbd). As Dangote is currently reported to be operating below its maximum capacity – at around 450-500kbd (Argus) – July imports of WTI will cover around 60% of all crude inputs to the refinery.

Beyond WTI and domestic grades, Dangote also previously took in cargoes from Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Brazil, and Algeria, although in smaller quantities.  

Wider West Africa crude outlook 

West African crude exports are in line with last years’ levels, with the difference between this year’s exports vs the previous two years being between 1-2% in the first half of July 2025, although they remain firmly below the 2016-24 average. Differentials of grades from Angola, Equatorial Guinea, and Nigeria are rising as benchmark prices come under pressure by increased OPEC+ production. 

Increased distillate margins and supply worries from the Middle East boosted purchasing of Angolan crude by China, with departures rebounding from June in the first half of July and rising by around 240kbd m-o-m. Exports from the Republic of Congo are also set to increase, with departures expected to hit a new peak in August (Argus). Ample supply and favourable freight rates from West Africa have positioned these crudes well against competing supplies, with Brazil exports to China down precipitously in the first half of July. Any reignition of hostilities in the Middle East would also favour West African exports. 

What’s Next 

Going forward, Nigeria is expected to petition OPEC+ for an increase to its quota from 1.5 mbd to 2 mbd from 2027, considering increased domestic demand coming from Dangote refinery. It has been reported that Dangote intends to switch to 100% domestic crude supply by December 2025 (Bloomberg). However, as mentioned above, only 5 domestic cargoes are expected in August, which does not signal a major change in supply patterns as of yet.