Global oil trade and demand: post-event report

Energy & Freight Insights Live: Singapore 

Vortexa hosted the Energy & Freight Insights Live: Singapore Edition on Tuesday, 8 April 2025, bringing together 120+ industry leaders, analysts, and operators to unpack the latest developments in global oil demand, product flows, and freight dynamics. With mounting geopolitical complexity and evolving demand centers, the insights shared were both timely and essential for stakeholders across the energy and shipping value chain. Together, we explored how oil demand indicators are showing weakness for crude and motor fuels globally, how freight will be impacted by sanctions and trade policies, as well as how long-haul voyages are shifting trade flows.

Key Takeaways of the Report:

• Demand Divergence: Crude Weakness vs. Petrochemical Strength

• Global crude and motor fuel demand is softening, with mounting risks of further downside in the event of an economic slowdown.

• In contrast, LNG, LPG, and naphtha are faring better, buoyed by non-transportation use such as power generation and petrochemicals.

• Asia’s Changing Energy Map

  • China and the rest of Northeast Asia are seeing a structural decline in crude oil demand amid pressures in refining. 

  • Meanwhile, crude oil imports into Southeast Asia and Oceania remain largely stagnant, and Oceania is receiving an increasing share of transport fuel imports at the expense of Southeast Asia.

  • India emerges as a bright spot for Asia, with new refining capacity expected to drive higher crude imports.

• Freight Dynamics: Tonne-Mile Demand Impacted by Sanctions

  • Tier-1 freight markets face tightening conditions, as sanctions and trade policy increasingly dictate vessel availability.

  • Greek-operated vessels have stepped in to backfill the OFAC-sanctioned fleet, enabling Russia to continue crude and residual fuel oil exports to global buyers.Venezuelan crude flows to Asia are likely to rise, driven by new U.S. tariff policies on importers of Venezuelan oil. This will increase ship-to-ship (STS) transfers and extend overall supply chain lengths.

• Long-haul Voyages and Shifts in Trade Flows

  • Long-haul product trades are expected to remain robust, supporting clean freight rates.

  • New Middle Eastern refineries returning from turnarounds will boost clean product exports to Europe, increasing CPP tonne-mile demand.

  • MR tankers are regaining share on voyages to Oceania, hinting at potential upside for MR freight rates in the Pacific Basin.

Download your copy of the post-event report to view the graphs, models and insights that cover these takeaways. These slides and reports are compiled by the Vortexa analyst team, backed by Vortexa data.