Russian diesel exports cross seasonal highs
In this insight we explore the recent surge in Russian diesel loadings amid a backdrop of damaged infrastructure.
Crude oil under pressure, diesel/gasoil loadings surge
Since 2023, Ukrainian forces have conducted multiple drone strikes with confirmed damage on Russian refineries on at least 75 instances, creating an intensive bombardment focused on refinery infrastructure since the start of 2025. Despite the destruction, June diesel/gasoil loadings out of Novorossiysk spiked to 410kbd – a multi-year high.
What has facilitated the surge?
- A 2.5-month pause by the Ukrainian side, since the damage to Tuapse refinery (240kbd, Argus) in March 2025, granting Russian refiners time needed to make adjustments to ramp up diesel production and consequently push more lucrative product to the market
- Recently completed maintenance at Volgograd refinery (290bpd, Argus), enabling quick diesel shipments via the Yug pipeline which has elevated exports out of Novorossiysk port
- Internal prioritisation of diesel/gasoil exports amid poor earnings balances for the mainstream producers (who pay more to invest, high taxes, have less subsidies on top of discounted trade)
- Growing demand from the Wider Mediterranean region for power generation needs, particularly from Turkey and North Africa
These increases have pushed Russia’s total seaborne diesel/gasoil exports above the 8-year seasonal level (blue line) in May which continue to rise in June above the seasonal range (see right hand side chart below, 28-day moving average).
In contrast, total crude/condensate seaborne exports continue to trend in the lower bound of the dataset range, suggesting that Russia is favouring diesel production and export.
Russian seaborne crude/condensate; diesel/gasoil exports (mbd, 28-day moving average)
Diesel/gasoil flows continue to move via STS chains
Although Turkey has been the main buyer of Russian diesel since 2022, with the exports to the country rising to 470kbd in June – an 84% increase y-o-y, lately we have noticed growing volumes discharging into North Africa, likely to be used for power generation.
Notably, diesel/gasoil imports by Egypt, Tunisia and Libya are projected to reach nearly 210kbd in June, a 45% increase y-o-y, and potentially an all-time monthly high since the region started importing Russian clean products after sanctions placed by the EU in 2022.
Alongside Russia, the three North African importers also source diesel/gasoil from Saudi Arabia, but Russia’s logistical edge and steeper discounts are likely to keep its flows highly competitive.
Adding to the supply pressure in the Med, Israeli Bazan refinery at the port of Haifa (197kbd) halted operations after a recent missile strike, which has boosted total diesel imports up 70% m-o-m. Russia-origin volumes comprised close to 73% of those imports.
Alongside the surge in Russia diesel/gasoil exports to the Wider Med, there has also been an increase in STS activity in Port Said and Cyprus STS locations, involving Russia-origin clean cargoes. This could suggest facilitating regional port requirements by parcelling out onto smaller vessels, primarily for Turkey, Egypt and Libya deliveries.
In the first quarter, 13% of total clean product exports from Russia have been involved in STS transfers at some part of the cargo’s voyage. In the same timeframe, the majority of the clean voyages involved in STS transfers moved to conduct operations at either Port Said or Cyprus (see chart below). So far this year, 45% of Russia-origin CPP volumes involved in STS at Port Said or Cyprus ended up in the Wider Med.
Count of Russia-origin CPP-laden vessels: Kalamata, Malta, Port Said, Cyprus; all Russia-origin CPP STS by destination wider shipping region
Looking ahead, Russia is likely to keep prioritising diesel/gasoil production and trade to facilitate higher financial returns amid nation-wide earnings turmoil. We are likely to keep witnessing high Russia-origin diesel/gasoil cargo deliveries to the Wider Mediterranean, especially as the EU proposal to lower the price cap for Russian oil to $45/b was not part of the recent sanctions package. Meanwhile, with the Ukrainian drone attacks recent return – Saratov refinery (140kbd, Argus) on June 6th – pressure on the refiners remains, leaving future elevated fuels production uncertain.
