Sanctions on Rosneft & Lukoil: when diesel could tighten

The US and EU have tightened sanctions on Russian oil trade. Rosneft and Lukoil, plus many subsidiaries, have now been placed on sanctions lists, tightening compliance around trade.

Russia diesel/gasoil liftings from the Baltic and the Black Sea averaged 950kbd between Jan-Oct 2025, and it is estimated that between 25-35% of the volume links back to Rosneft refineries, and 10-15% to Lukoil refineries.

Large impact on paper, but likely less so in practice

According to a manual assessment performed by Vortexa analysts, 52% of Russia Baltic diesel/gasoil seaborne exports and 26% of Russia Black Sea diesel/gasoil seaborne exports could be exposed under these new measures. Applying these shares to average 2025 diesel export volumes implies 250kbd at risk from Russia Baltic, and 110kbd from Russia Black Sea. Although these are not guaranteed losses to the total diesel/gasoil balance, they are however the portion to most likely face increased delays and rerouting. 

LHS: Russia Baltic diesel/gasoil exports split between Rosneft/Lukoil (estimated) and others (kbd) RHS: Russia Black Sea diesel/gasoil exports split between Rosneft/Lukoil (estimated) and others (kbd)

Baltic exports are already constrained

Based on year-to-date export data, 150kbd (33%) of Russia Baltic diesel is shipped to Turkey, 135kbd (29%) to Brazil and the remainder is exported to other Mediterranean countries. 

In recent months, Russia Baltic diesel/gasoil exports have fallen to the bottom of the seasonal range due to refinery strikes and seasonal maintenance capping export capacity. This sustained decrease in exports likely means that an immediate buying reaction is unlikely, given key buyers Turkey and Brazil are already relying on more alternative sources. Brazil, for instance, has already largely shifted away throughout 2025, with only 18% of diesel/gasoil imports in October originating from Russia, a 31-month low.

Brazil diesel/gasoil imports from Russia (kbd)

Black Sea exposure is smaller, at an estimated 26%, with almost half of Russia Black Sea diesel exports sent to Turkey this year, and the rest largely to other Mediterranean buyers.

Summer demand and policy risk

The short term balance is likely to remain unchanged with European and Middle East refineries coming back from maintenance in November/December to cover any short-term supply concerns. In addition, Q1 is historically the poorest quarter for diesel demand.

The real stress test may arrive next summer if the Mediterranean again pulls in large amounts of diesel for power generation. With a smaller unsanctioned supply pool from Russia and Europe’s ban on Russian-derived products kicking in, any large demand wave or unscheduled refinery outages will have a sharper impact on margins.