Strong gasoline margins supported by supply-side outages

Gasoline margins in the Atlantic Basin reached $18-$19/bbl on an average in September compared to $6-$9 per barrel on an average a year ago, meanwhile Rbob forward margins are at the highest levels since August 2024 (Argus).The recent uptick in gasoline margins is a reflection of how sensitive prolonged supply outages can be even to an oversupplied market.

Atlantic Basin gasoline arrivals by destination shipping region year on year change (kbd)

Atlantic Basin gasoline import demand disappointed this summer (5% below 9 year seasonal average in June). Combined with counterseasonal middle distillate strength, refineries likely shifted their yields to produce middle distillates, widening the supply gap between these transportation fuels. Intra-Atlantic Basin gasoline loadings tracked below the nine year seasonal average every month this year. Meanwhile, middle distillate loadings surged to the top of the nine year seasonal range on the back of strong Wider European demand for power generation.

Intra-Atlantic Basin gasoline/blending component loadings (bd)  , Intra-Atlantic Basin middle distillate loadings (bd)

Despite the lackluster action gasoline witnessed this summer as a result of poor demand, the current margin strength can likely be explained due to a confluence of supply factors including unplanned outages in Europe, West Africa and the Middle East between September - November 2025 combined with refineries flexing their yields to take advantage of the counterseasonal strength in middle distillates. Low crude values have also contributed to the strength despite poor demand.

Although it is widely reported that the European refinery turnaround season is expected to be below previous years levels, there has been a significant reduction in operating capacity in 2025 (~400kbd). Additionally, considering the Middle East now plays a larger role in supplying the Atlantic Basin, the looming outage program which includes over 900kbd between September - December, is likely to have an outsized impact on refined product margins.

Gasoline/blending component loadings by origin shipping region (kbd)