Looking now at our Russian case study, total seaborne oil exports (crude and products) are clearly on a declining path over the last two years. Specifically, every monthly observation so far this year is below the previous year’s level and substantially below the seasonal average. Four of six monthly observations in 2025 are even marking a seasonal low, based on the 2016-2024 historical data range. All this can be read easily and directly from the chart.  

The above pattern comes primarily from crude/condensate, but dirty products are also setting regular seasonal lows in H1 2025, while clean products are between seasonal averages and seasonal lows, closely aligned to 2024 observations. We will delve deeper into the underlying reasons below but, overall, the trend reflects an industry in decay, linked to a lack of investment and growth prospects amid low returns for the actual operators, as Russia maximises its income to finance the war effort in Ukraine, which is itself a strong reason for regular refinery outages amid drone attacks.  

Moving averages help to tackle high-frequency data volatility 

While the above representation of monthly values on a seasonal chart is clean, neat, and easy to understand, market participants are unwilling to wait a full month for the next value, while partial monthly data is subject to volatility and revisions, and generally not a fair comparison due to the different number of days included. The solution for this problem is a moving average, e.g. 28 days for a daily chart, as shown below for Russian gasoil/diesel exports. While it is completely impossible to read something out of the daily values, which show a massive range of somewhere between 0 and 2.8mbd, the 28-day moving average essentially gives every day a monthly value. Currently, gasoil/diesel exports are moving markedly higher, having set a seasonal high on a monthly basis in May.  

The reason for high gasoil/diesel exports – in contrast to all other flows – is that Russian exporters clearly make the most money on this hydrocarbon, which is a function of international prices, different price caps, as well as the relatively close, logistically cheap, outlet for this product – largely in the Wider Mediterranean market (while crude, naphtha and fuel oil tend to move East of Suez to the Asian market). The recent strong performance of the diesel crack may underpin this trend, while OPEC+ pressure on (apparent) Russian crude supplies could contribute to the focus on refined products rather than crude exports.  

Year-on-year changes highlight differences per product group 

Different trends in different product groups also become apparent in year-on-year change charts (now available on the platform), compiled below for crude/condensates, clean products and dirty products. The latter see the most persistent decline pattern amid challenged refining operations, while some players also managed to add or upgrade secondary units, reducing fuel oil or vacuum gas oil yields.  

For crude/condensates, the massive decline triggered by Covid and the respective OPEC+ reaction stands out, as well as the quick but not complete comeback in the following year. Afterwards there is a lot of flatlining with a bit of upside in 2023 related to the rerouting of pipeline flows to the sea. Otherwise, the decline this year stands out, as discussed above.

Clean products have long shown a strong performance in line with refinery upgrades, but 2024 was pretty disappointing, potentially related to regular Ukrainian drone attacks. The stabilisation this year, coinciding with the crude decline, supports the notion of a potentially deliberate OPEC-pressure-related shift from crude to product exports, with recently fewer drone attacks and higher diesel export netbacks completing the picture.  

Baseline charts as highlight of new chart toolset 

The chart types presented so far are reasonably intuitive and straightforward. Now we will focus on baseline charts, where all values are shown in relation to a baseline period that can be freely selected on our platform (a day, week, month, year or any other period). Baseline charts are great to analyse the change per component versus a reference period. The advantage is that the level of the components (as defined by the baseline period) is taken out of the equation, allowing you to compare the change in time series that started from a very different level.  

The following three charts all use the same underlying data (Russian seaborne oil flows) and the same reference period – the average of 2019, which reflects the last “normal” year in the market as well as the peak of the Russian oil industry.  

The above chart is once again showing the decline in Russian oil exports, segmented by product group. The different reasons behind the respective decline have already been discussed above in detail. An interesting further takeaway here is how relevant the loss of dirty product exports is in the total decline pattern, again underpinning the focus of Russian exporters on higher–value products.

When looking at the decay of Russian oil exports on a regional basis, there is quite some variation. Exports from Russia Far East are actually increasing, as Russia is pushing short-haul exports to the regional/Chinese market as much as possible under the existing logistical constraints. Declines from the Russia Arctic region (essentially only crude) are relatively small in the big picture but substantial on a percentage basis, as about 35% of exports have been lost since 2019.  

Otherwise it stands out how much bigger the decline in exports is from the Black Sea compared to the Baltic, especially given the much lower starting point. Russia has for decades worked on shifting exports towards the key Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, fostered by new crude and product pipelines. Evidently, this focus was maintained in spite of the breakaway of the core Wider Northwest European export outlet due to sanctions. Possibly the route via the Danish Straits and the English Channel is seen as more reliable than the weather-affected and congested Turkish Straits. And the northern route is surely less exposed to risks related to the war with Ukraine.

On the final chart above, we look at imports of Russian oil by Wider Shipping region destination, highlighting the massive move from Wider Northwest Europe to the Wider Arabian Sea (including refiners on India’s West Coast). But other East of Suez markets and the South Atlantic are also seeing higher inflows of Russian oil. On the negative side, there is the North American East Coast, largely reflecting the stop of secondary feedstock supplies to US Gulf Coast refiners, and the Wider Mediterranean.  

Two things stand out for the Wider Mediterranean market: 1) the overall limited or non-existing losses post-sanctions as in Wider Northwest Europe, and 2) a move back to the 2019 highs in the current month (June 2025). The latter is due to strong import demand from Turkey for crude and products, as well as surging interest in various North African countries for Russian gasoil/diesel amid soaring power generation needs.

We would love to hear your questions or feedback 

The current substantial improvements in our charting tools will not mark the end of a process. If you have further suggestions for improvement, questions or any other feedback, please reach out to your Vortexa representative here.