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As market enters the shoulder season, the outlook for summer 2025 has weakened on the back of three key drivers:
Deteriorating Chinese LNG demand, driven by US-China trade war slowing industrial output
Increased flexibility in EU storage targets looks set to ease summer refill requirements, restoring a winter-summer premium for 2025-26
Improving supply outlook driven by Plaquemines’ rapid ramp-up in US and record Qatar exports, where output hit >110% of capacity
A wave of newbuilds and reduced voyage distances continue to weigh on spot rates. Record low utilisation is forcing layups and scrapping in the elderly steam-propelled fleet.
Chinese-built LNG vessels escape extra fees in US under the proposed USTR directive. But lack of clarity still clouds longer-term aspiration to create a US-built and operated LNG fleet.