Flows
Freight rate reprieves, ongoing supply reshuffle amid US-MEG price war to pressure FOB prices, widen AFEI, ARA contango
China’s pull of US LPG surges m-o-m ahead of Nov 10 tariff pause deadline; Middle East-Northeast Asia exports decline
Competing feedstocks
Lower China exports crimps monthly ethane sendout, a warning sign ahead of tariff pause deadline amid ample supply, stocks
Algeria leads naphtha export recovery amid better arbs for most of Oct; propane’s cash cost advantage douses NE Asia imports
Freight
VLGC rates correcting sharply amid USTR fee deferral; LPG steam cracker and COGH favourability to provide mild support
MEG availability at 22-month high as Diwali pre-stocking slows; BLPG3 crash overdone given relatively stable m-o-m ship supply
Arbs & petchems margins
Pro-nap swaps atypically signalling propane as more advantaged feedstock through end-Nov, anticipating ample LPG imports
Published: October 2025