Key takeaways:

• Flows

  • Freight rate reprieves, ongoing supply reshuffle amid US-MEG price war to pressure FOB prices, widen AFEI, ARA contango

  • China’s pull of US LPG surges m-o-m ahead of Nov 10 tariff pause deadline; Middle East-Northeast Asia exports decline

• Competing feedstocks

  • Lower China exports crimps monthly ethane sendout, a warning sign ahead of tariff pause deadline amid ample supply, stocks

  • Algeria leads naphtha export recovery amid better arbs for most of Oct; propane’s cash cost advantage douses NE Asia imports

• Freight

  • VLGC rates correcting sharply amid USTR fee deferral; LPG steam cracker and COGH favourability to provide mild support

  • MEG availability at 22-month high as Diwali pre-stocking slows; BLPG3 crash overdone given relatively stable m-o-m ship supply

• Arbs & petchems margins

  • Pro-nap swaps atypically signalling propane as more advantaged feedstock through end-Nov, anticipating ample LPG imports

Published: October 2025