Adani ban on sanctioned ships to impact India crude arrivals

On 10 September, Adani Group, India’s largest private port operator, announced a ban on the entry of sanctioned vessels across all its ports. The group operates 14 ports and terminals nationwide, handling a diverse mix of cargo including crude oil, refined products, LPG/LNG, containers, and dry bulk.

This move comes at a critical juncture for India, one of the world’s top importers of Russian crude, much of which is transported on vessels sanctioned by the EU, UK, OFAC and Switzerland. Leveraging Vortexa’s data on seaborne energy flows and freight, we assess the near- and medium-term impacts of the Adani Group’s ban on India’s import dynamics.

Adani-operated ports account for 8% of India’s total crude imports

From the list of ports and terminals operated by the Adani Group, six ports handle energy products, i.e. crude, oil products (liquids) and LPG/LNG. Filtering crude arrivals into India by destination port on Vortexa's platform, it is evident that Mundra is the group’s sole port handling international crude oil arrivals into India.

Based on trailing twelve month (TTM) data from September 2024 to August 2025, 376kbd of crude oil was discharged into Mundra, which comprised 8% of India’s total crude imports. Crude discharged at Mundra is piped inland to Indian Oil Corp (IOC), the country's largest state-owned refiner and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd (HMEL), operator of a 226kbd inland refinery in Bathinda.

Crude arrival into Adani Group operated ports by destination port (bars, LHS) and total crude into India (line, RHS) (kbd)

Russian Crude Dominates Mundra’s Intake

Vortexa’s cargo flow data was then used to analyze crude oil arrivals into Mundra by origin country. The data reveals a clear trend: Russia-origin oil has become the dominant feedstock at Mundra since early 2023, reflecting a broader shift in India’s crude import strategy amid discounts on Russian oil. Based on TTM figures from September 2024 to August 2025, Mundra received an average of 181kbd of Russian crude, accounting for 48% of total crude arrivals at the port. The bulk of these volumes comprised medium-sour Urals, well-suited to India’s refining systems which are optimized for processing heavier and sour crudes.

In addition to Russia, Mundra also received crude from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Mexico. These suppliers typically offer medium to heavy sour grades, which are also compatible with India’s complex refining configuration. However, as shown by the below chart, their share of arrivals has declined relative to Russian volumes over the past 2 years.

Crude arrivals into Mundra port – Russia, Iran and Venezuela (bars) and total crude (line) (kbd)

The concentration of Russian crude at Mundra raises operational questions in light of Adani Group’s ban on sanctioned vessels. Based on TTM data from September 2024 to August 2025, crude arrivals into Mundra lifted on Western-sanctioned tankers averaged 42kbd and accounted for 12% of total arrivals into the port. In the same time period, a total of 36 presently sanctioned Suezmaxes and Aframaxes discharged Russia crude grades into Mundra. Given sanctioned tankers carrying Russian crude are likely already en-route to Mundra prior to the announcement, we anticipate potential diversions away from Mundra in the coming weeks. As a result, Russian crude arrivals into Mundra are expected to decline in the short term.

Crude arrivals into Mundra port – total crude, imports via sanctioned tankers (calculated manually) (kbd, LHS) and share of imports via sanctioned tankers (%, RHS)

Outlook on Import and Freight Dynamics

Non-OFAC sanctioned tankers carrying Russian crude to Mundra could divert to nearby ports such as Sikka and Vadinar, which are currently the largest receivers of Russian oil in India. The recent ban on Western-sanctioned vessels by Adani Group could place downward pressure on freight rates for sanctioned tonnage, thereby increasing the economic incentive for these alternative ports to import more discounted Russian crude via such vessels—especially since Sikka and Vadinar have continued to permit port calls from Western-designated tankers that are not sanctioned by OFAC.

In particular, we expect Russian crude flows into Vadinar to rise in the coming months. Imports of non-Russian crude declined m-o-m in August, as mainstream vessels avoided calling at the Nayara Energy refinery terminal. At the same time, Urals arrivals edged higher, with vessels on the Russia–India trade route resuming discharges following brief disruptions in July (read more here). This shift suggests that Nayara Energy may continue substituting non-Russian grades with discounted Russian barrels, particularly those delivered via sanctioned tankers. As a result, we anticipate an uptick in Russian crude arrivals into Vadinar.

India crude/condensate imports into destination ports (kbd) (Russia-origin, Total imports)

The medium-term impact on Mundra’s crude intake remains uncertain. While the immediate fallout from Adani’s vessel ban is evident, India’s crude logistics are likely to adapt in the coming months to minimise broader disruptions. IOC, with its extensive pipeline network connecting multiple coastal terminals, could shift Russian crude imports to non-Adani operated ports that continue to accept sanctioned tankers.

In contrast, HMEL is reliant on Mundra for crude receipts as its inland refinery is located in Bathinda. We foresee two plausible scenarios for HMEL’s sourcing strategy:

1. Continued imports of Russian crude via non-sanctioned tonnage, provided these remain competitively priced on a delivered basis compared to non-Russian alternatives. This would also be reliant on the capacity for non-sanctioned tonnage joining the shadow fleet and servicing the Russia-to-India crude supply chain.

2. A pivot toward non-Russia origin crude barrels, which will likely be loaded from the Middle East, West Africa, and the Americas—regions typically served by mainstream VLCCs and Suezmaxes on voyages to India.

Either scenario would lead to a potential tightening of the mainstream fleet and a bullish factor for crude freight rates in the coming months. As refiners recalibrate their sourcing strategies, freight markets will adjust to evolving trade dynamics.