India’s crude/condensate imports had a strong performance in Q1 2025, reaching an all-time high of 5.0mbd in March. Imports have since eased in April and May, largely due to refinery maintenances. We expect India’s crude imports to increase in H2 2025 compared to the same period last year, mainly due to more available refining capacity.

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) announced the expansion of their Visakhapatnam (Vizag) refinery to 300kbd in February 2025. The refinery is successfully running at higher capacity, as Vizag seaborne crude imports increased since March. HPCL plans to commission their residue upgradation facility (RUF) in Q3 2025, which will increase yields of more valuable products such as middle distillates over fuel oil, boosting gross refining margins. This could lead to higher crude runs on the margin, providing upside to imports.

In addition, several planned refinery turnarounds are expected to be completed in the coming quarter. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL) 140kbd CDU is expected to return from maintenance by end-June. Meanwhile, we hear that Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is expected to complete maintenance works at the 270kbd Gujarat refinery by July 2025.

Looking towards 2026, HPCL Rajasthan Refinery Limited (HRRL) 180kbd greenfield Barmer refinery-petrochemical complex is expected to begin commissioning by end of this year. For integrated complexes, startups usually begin at the refinery, followed by the petrochemical plant. Assuming no delays to commissioning plans, we expect additional ~100kbd medium/heavy sour crude imports into India in Q1 2026 and imports will increase as the complex ramps up operations.

India to continue relying on Russia as main supplier of crude, more imports from Saudi Arabia and the UAE expected

We foresee that India will continue to import majority of crude from Russia due to discounts on Russian oil, which translate to better refining economics for refineries in India. Medium sour Urals crude will continue to be the main grade imported by India from Russia, followed by other crude grades such as Sokol and ESPO. We heard that India increased prompt purchases of ESPO crude, scheduled for loading in June. This will lead to further upside to India’s imports of Russian crude in the near-term.

India committed to purchase more oil and gas from the U.S. when India Prime Minister Narendra Modi met U.S. President Donald Trump in February in Washington. Most of the US crude imported by India are light sweet grades such as WTI, and these barrels compete against discounted Sokol crude and similar grades from West Africa.  Given the discontinuation of Venezuelan crude exports to the US and recent Canadian wildfires potentially disrupting dilbit supplies,  medium sour grades such as Mars blend will more likely remain in the U.S. for domestic refiners. For these reasons, we do not foresee a significant increase in India’s imports of U.S. crude.

In fact, India’s crude imports from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) increased in May. This trend could likely continue amid higher planned output from Saudi Arabia and the UAE in June and July. In addition, the Brent-Dubai EFS widened in May (based on Argus prices), making Middle East crude more price competitive compared to Atlantic Basin crude.

In summary, India’s crude import demand will rise in H2 2025 as more refineries return from planned maintenance and new projects start up. Russia is expected to remain as the dominant supplier of crude into India, and we could see more crude from Saudi Arabia and the UAE heading to India in the months ahead.