Iran’s July oil exports hold at 1.5mbd despite sanctions

Iran’s crude exports averaged 1.5 mbd in July, down around 100 kbd year-on-year but broadly in line with the elevated levels sustained since late 2023, despite the late‑month rollout of the most expansive US sanctions package since 2018. Flows eased from June’s highs by 480 kbd m-o-m but were supported by steady buying from key Asian markets and the absence of major logistical disruptions. 

The month’s performance highlights Iran’s ability to maintain significant seaborne flows even as scrutiny intensifies. That resilience will be tested in the months ahead as the new measures—including sanctions on over 50 vessels, multiple entities, and, for the first time, maritime agents—begin to work their way through shipping and logistics networks. 

Significant new sanctions escalate enforcement 

On July 30, the US Treasury sanctioned more than 50 vessels — including around 30 oil tankers — along with 53 entities, and 115 individuals linked to the Shamkhani shipping network. 

For the first time, maritime agents—UAE‑based GMCG Shipping LLC and Cyprus‑based GMCG Ltd—were designated. These service providers manage incorporation, flagging, and insurance arrangements for tankers, creating layers of separation between beneficial ownership and operations. Their designation increases compliance risk across the maritime services sector, potentially reducing the pool of willing or insurable tankers for high‑risk trades and adding friction to Iranian oil logistics. 

The US also designated Zhoushan Jinrun Petroleum Transfer, a crude terminal operator in the greater Zhoushan port area. Zhoushan Jinrun handled port calls and discharges for the sanctioned tankers VIOLA and RANI, and has received at least six shipments of Iranian crude since April. Targeting a terminal marks a notable escalation, disrupting a key hub for Iranian oil into China. This could prompt some buyers to adjust import routes, diversify discharge points, or rely more heavily on intermediary traders and less conspicuous terminals. 

Despite the expanded measures, Vortexa data shows limited immediate impact on July export volumes. 

Iran's crude oil exports (bpd)

Logistical tactics amid global enforcement 

Iran’s crude continues to move through shadow fleet operations involving disabled AIS signals, falsified identities, and ship‑to‑ship (STS) transfers. On August 1, Malaysian authorities announced a crackdown, closing the Tompok Utara anchorage near the Singapore Strait and requiring AIS tracking and prior approvals for STS activity. While this could complicate operations and raise costs, similar measures in the past by Malaysia and Indonesia have had limited lasting effect. Near‑term outlook and risks Vortexa expects Iran crude exports to remain resilient in the short term, supported by Chinese demand and flexible logistics. However, downside risks include: 

• Expanded sanctions targeting maritime agents, logistics facilitators, and infrastructure such as terminals. 

• Secondary sanctions on Chinese terminal operators or intermediaries. 

• Regional enforcement making STS transfers more complex and extending voyage distances. 

• Tightening availability of willing tankers for sanctioned trades, raising freight costs. 

Broader market implications 

The sanctioning of Zhoushan Jinrun signals a willingness to target the land-based infrastructure enabling Iranian flows, not just the tankers carrying the oil. Such measures add operational complexity, slow delivery timelines, and increase costs—factors that can strain shadow fleet capacity and push freight rates higher. 

For now, Iran exports remain steady. But if enforcement on terminals, facilitators, and hubs intensifies, trade patterns may shift, challenging Iran’s ability to sustain flows and adding fresh volatility to both crude markets and freight dynamics.