Exclusive LPG Report: Global LPG trade flows face a myriad of uncertainties in spring 2024
With US LPG trade flows faced with logistical challenges arising from weather pattern changes and rising geopolitical risks, Middle East supplies have become more attractive to Asian importers. A recovery in Asia’s import demand is no where in the horizon as petrochemical margins remain in the doldrums.
07 February, 2024
Key report takeaways:
- Shifts in weather patterns and rising geopolitical risks are reshaping LPG trade flows. US LPG exports have come under pressure amid a surge in domestic prices from a deep freeze and lacklustre Northeast Asia LPG demand, shutting the US-Asia arb.
- Panama Canal restrictions have eased, which is also reflected in auction prices for slots. Expect a decline in VLGCs sailing via the Cape of Good Hope to Asia and a persistent halt in transits through the Suez Canal.
- Lower Saudi Arabian LPG exports are weighing on Middle East supplies, with exports expected to rebound in Feb. More ballast VLGCs are heading towards the Middle East and fewer to the US as Middle East LPG cargoes gain attractiveness.
- On the demand side, China’s LPG imports rose in Jan as re-routed VLGCs from the US arrive. Persistent weakness in PDH margins has prompted increasing reselling of imported LPG cargoes in the wholesale market, and prospects for new PDH capacity start-ups remain challenging.
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