Analytics Vortexa

Surplus gasoline cargoes are currently chasing homes around the world. Last week we highlighted a spike in cargoes departing ARA and going transatlantic, and this week we note a rise in expected in arrivals to West African ports.

Current estimates of global gasoline arrivals into west Africa this month are set to reach the highest we've seen since March of 2018, when close to 2.5mn mt landed in the region. On average over the past three years (2017-2019) we see around 1.5mn mt of gasoline arrive per month. The estimate for global gasoline arrivals into west Africa in March includes 1.23 mn mt already arrived, plus 856k on the water and due to arrive by end of month, assuming no diversions or delays. 


Screenshot 2020-03-23 at 16.07.40


As usual, most of the cargoes currently in transit to the region are from ARA region and north west Europe, but cargoes are also moving from the Baltic region, the Mediterranean and more unusually, China. It is noteworthy that gasoline imports into west Africa from China are set to rise further in April, with an LR1 and Aframax tanker currently expected to deliver, as surplus gasoline in the Asian region also seeks to find a home in west Africa. 



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