European gasoline exports rise in July
Gasoline exports from northwest Europe and the Mediterranean rose on the month to 1.24mn b/d in July.
Gasoline and blending component exports from northwest Europe and the Mediterranean rose on the month to 1.24mn b/d in July, the highest monthly total since March. Growing exports, following a drop to multiyear lows in April, underline rising refinery runs from European refiners amid stronger regional demand, but the impact of an increased pull from the US could be short-lived.
Northwest Europe and Mediterranean gasoline/blending component exports (b/d)
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Exports rise in July
Gasoline/blending component exports from northwest Europe and the Mediterranean have grown for the third consecutive month to 1.24m b/d, but exports remain marginally lower year-on-year (see chart).
Preliminary indications for the first half of August show total exports of at least 930,000 b/d, though this may rise during this month.
Around 270,000 b/d of gasoline departed for PADD 1 in July, the highest monthly flow for the route so far this year. The largest suppliers to PADD 1 in July were traditional suppliers, the Netherlands, Belgium and the UK.
But August exports could trend lower if US demand deteriorates. So far this month, only 120,000 b/d has left from European waters to PADD 1 – and weekly EIA data has shown US gasoline demand to be little changed over the course of July, with PADD 1 gasoline stocks edging up for the third consecutive week.
Any drop in transatlantic exports could pave the way for increased flows to west Africa. European exports to west Africa stood at 280,000 b/d in July, up by 13% from June and in line with volumes seen in July 2019. But volumes are still much lower than the 2020 peak of 620,000 b/d in March – when European gasoline demand was likely at its lowest during the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Intra-regional flows uptick
- Amid an overall rise in exports out of Europe in July, intra-regional flows also posted a month-on-month rise, for the first time since April.
- Around 720,000 b/d was redistributed within northwest Europe and the Mediterranean in July, up from a multiyear low of 650,000 b/d in June. However intra-region flows averaged closer to 900,000 b/d in July 2019 and July 2018.
- The main importers in July were the ports of Amsterdam and Antwerp.
- Gasoline imports into Beirut hit a 10-month high in July. But this trend is highly unlikely to persist through August following a chemical explosion on 4 August at a storage facility within the Lebanese port.
- In light of recent events,Lebanon’s gasoline imports could be shifted to increase discharge activity at other ports in the country such as Zahrani, Amchit, and Tripoli.
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