Several gasoline and diesel cargoes have diverted away from the US East coast hub of New York Harbor so far this month and  proceeded further south to Caribbean storage and South America. This implies a PADD 1 surplus amid dampened demand, that could prompt prices to recede.

Gasoline/Blending Components Diversions

Around 850,000 bbl of gasoline/blending components has already been drawn away from New York for delivery in January. So far, three MR tankers carrying European gasoline/blending components diverted away from New York and switched course towards the Caribbean and South America.

According to the EIA, PADD 1 gasoline stocks broke above the five-year range in early November and have remained at or above the five year range.

• BP-chartered Mitera departed Spain’s Algeciras at the end of December with a gasoline/blending components cargo and has switched destinations en-route multiple times – firstly away from New York to Bahamas, and again on 13 January for Argentina, with an ETA of end-January. The provisional fixture was booked with multiple discharge options.
• The STI Esles II left Spain’s Bilbao in early January. After also initially signalling New York, it switched to Freeport, Bahamas.
• The BW Osprey left Turkey’s Tutunciftlik at the end of December, initially bound for New York – but is now approaching St. Croix in the Caribbean.

European gasoline/blending components arrivals (Jan ’21 preliminary up to 1H Jan)  

See this in the Vortexa platform

Middle Distillates Diversions

Diversions away from the New York Harbor are also being seen on middle distillates cargoes totalling another 1mn bbl.

• Jet fuel-laden MR Piltene departed Russia’s Ust-Luga and initially signaled Port Everglades, Florida but is now discharging into the Caribbean. The tanker has already discharged partly into Yabucoa, Puerto Rico and was last seen signalling St Croix as its next destination.
• The Trafigura-chartered Aframax Baru, co-loaded with diesel from Oman’s Sohar and Qatar’s Ras Laffan, is heading to Freeport, Bahamas, having switched away from New York.
• The Total-chartered, Antwerp-origin MR Jo Kari has also diverted away from New York, but is staying in PADD 1 for now and heading for Florida’s Port Canaveral.

Total diesel/gasoil arrivals into the wider PADD 1 region reached a multi-year peak of 380,000 b/d in December. But the more recent shift of diesel/gasoil away from New York Harbor suggests a period of unusually high import activity, including abnormally high transatlantic flows, has passed.

EIA data shows that PADD 1 distillate stocks have remained relatively unchanged since plateauing at historically high levels last summer near 67mn bbl. PADD 1 distillate stocks stood at 62mn bbl as of January 8.

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