Turkish diesel exports soar
Turkey’s seaborne diesel/gasoil exports are soaring well above the historical range, in this insight we look at where the exports are going and the flows enabling these exports to happen.
Turkey’s diesel imports from Russia tripled in 2023 y-o-y, making it the top recipient of Russian diesel for the current year. Put another way, 30% of all diesel exports from Russia have landed in Turkey in 2023 compared to only 11% in 2022, pushing out imports namely from India.
Due to these ongoing ample supplies of diesel imports that far exceed historical import volumes, Turkey has been able to export diesel in rising numbers to the core European market (EU 27 + UK). The key question has been how much are they exporting, to where, and to what extent the volumes represent re-exported molecules from Russia?
We can see that Turkey’s diesel exports have far exceeded the last seven year range, hitting a peak of 190kbd in August and are on track to exceed those levels in September. Average diesel production in Turkey is around 350kbd (JODI). With a relatively stable demand in both 2022 and 2023 at around 500kbd (JODI) it would be possible to reach a high volume of exports using only domestic production whilst receiving Russian barrels.
Now let’s take a look at where those diesel barrels are going and we can see a mix of importers in around the Med. Most notably are imports to Greece who have quadrupled volumes year on year although at relatively small volumes (23 kbd), Italy (+75% y-o-y) and ARA (+77%y-o-y) who have taken in growing volumes from Turkey.
We have also observed certain ports and terminals in Turkey importing Russian diesel and exporting diesel to the wider market for the first time in 2023 (small volumes), however due to the extensive refinery, pipeline and storage systems that exist in the country especially along the southern Med, it is inconclusive to assume the majority of the barrels are anything but domestically produced barrels.