PADD 1 gasoline supply deficit widens in 2020 driving season
US gasoline supply deficit to PADD 1 widens in 2020 driving season
Gasoline markets in the US have been dominated by Covid-19-related demand destruction this driving season. Reduced waterborne gasoline imports and lower local refinery production have led to a large deficit in the total volume of gasoline supplied to PADD 1 during the driving season this year versus 2019.
PADD 1 gasoline supply: Refinery production (EIA) & Vortexa waterborne imports (mn b/d)
- Waterborne gasoline imports into PADD 1 collapsed in April, shedding more than 450,000 b/d, or 82%, peak to trough within that month and slowly recovering to levels below those seen in 2019 (see chart above). The share of PADD 1 gasoline supply coming from waterborne imports remained remarkably steady in the 15-20% range throughout the ongoing demand shock.
- PADD 1 refinery production of gasoline also fell precipitously in April, according to US EIA data, falling as low as 1.5mn b/d (52%) lower, year on year. Gasoline production in the region has since recovered, reaching around 3mn b/d by August, but still below 2019 levels.
- Cuts to both waterborne imports and local refinery production has curbed the total amount of gasoline supplied to PADD 1.
- According to Vortexa data, there have been 44 million fewer waterborne barrels of gasoline delivered to PADD 1 than in 2019. This number pales in comparison to the 200 million fewer barrels of gasoline produced by PADD 1 refineries in the 2020 driving season – which runs from Memorial Day to Labor Day – compared to 2019.
PADD 1 year-on-year gasoline deficit by source (mn bbl)
- PADD 1 saw a 44% reduction in gasoline barrels supplied during the 2020 driving season – comprised of local refinery production plus waterborne imports. This implies a total year-on-year gasoline supply deficit of more than 250mn bbl (see chart above).
Want to know more about these flows?
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