In 2023, adopting a proactive and forward-thinking strategy became crucial for understanding and navigating the intricacies and disruptions brought about by global economic uncertainties. Our analysts spearheaded an array of thorough insights, examining supply and demand indicators, price volatilities in the oil and gas sector, and the impacts of global economic slowdowns.

The year 2023 has presented notable challenges for Chinese refiners. Despite the rapid recovery of transportation fuel demand following China’s reopening, the refining industry faced headwinds from a simultaneous domestic and global economic slowdown. Additionally, while Chinese refiners enjoyed a broader array of discounted feedstock options, the implementation of stricter feedstock import policies has added further pressure to the operations of independent refiners.

2023 has been a year of adaptation. The beginning of the year went from fears of how the world will cope without Russian crude and diesel to one where we witnessed the opposite even taking market share from nearby suppliers. We have seen relatively little if any shut in of Russian crude production as India and China answered the call for cheap crude. While this theme dominated the first half of the year, the second half was concerned with the new Middle East refineries and then of course tensions threatening an impact to the Strait of Hormuz. And we end the year with the latest related conflict focusing in on the attacks in the Red Sea and of course the Panama Canal congestion, both of which will likely haunt us into 2024.

2023 saw a significant increase in the number of tankers operating in opaque markets, contributing to 4-year high combined crude exports from these markets. The total opaque fleet has surpassed 1,600 tankers, with over 1,000 operating in Q2 alone, the peak of this activity. Iran’s crude/condensate exports have reached a record-high under sanctions this year, Venezuela increased its production and exports and Russia has been able to find alternative buyers in India & China, allowing it to increase its crude exports. Additionally, we have seen tankers newly enter this trade in 2023, helping facilitate higher exports in these markets, whilst demolition activity of tankers in this trade has been a multi-year low, suggesting operators in this trade are reluctant to scrap their tankers as they continue to trade sanctioned barrels.